Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 12:00
Kicked offMetalist 1925 – Obolon Kyiv
Model updated 4 September, 10:12 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Metalist 1925
- 57%
- Draw
- 30%
- Obolon Kyiv
- 13%
| Metalist 1925 | Draw | Obolon Kyiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.76 | 3.36 | 7.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 43%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Metalist 1925
57% Metalist 1925 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 9th
- Metalist 1925 attack v Obolon Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Metalist 1925 defence v Obolon Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs -0.67
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.50 – 0.66
- Metalist 1925 v Obolon Kyiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Metalist 1925 | Obolon Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.42 · 1st from 4 matches | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.79 · 2nd from 4 matches | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.63 · 1st from 4 matches | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 2nd from 4 matches | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.90 | -0.67 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Metalist 1925 sample
- 20 matches
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Metalist 1925
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 04/09/2026 at 10:12
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.