Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 14h to kick-offObolon Kyiv – Veres Rivne
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Obolon Kyiv
- 35%
- Draw
- 33%
- Veres Rivne
- 32%
| Obolon Kyiv | Draw | Veres Rivne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.87 | 3.03 | 3.11 |
- Total goals
- 2.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Obolon Kyiv to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 13th
- Obolon Kyiv attack v Veres Rivne defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 12th
- Obolon Kyiv defence v Veres Rivne attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.34 vs -1.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.19 – 1.13
- Obolon Kyiv v Veres Rivne
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Obolon Kyiv | Veres Rivne |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 0.94 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.06 · 13th |
| xGD / match | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -1.13 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 0.85 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.34 | (better) -1.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Obolon Kyiv clean sheet
- 29%
- Obolon Kyiv 2+ goals
- 34%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.0%
- 0:0
- 10.1%
- 1:0
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Veres Rivne
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.