Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 12:00
Full timeVeres Rivne 2:1 Kudrivka
Veres Rivne were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 2–1.
The model against the result
- Veres Rivne
- 47% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Kudrivka
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.02 xG created 2.12 xGA
- L 1.43 created, 2.38 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- L 0.20 created, 3.80 conceded against Metalist 1925
- L 1.63 created, 2.77 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 0.68 created, 2.05 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- D 0.87 created, 1.08 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- D 1.31 created, 0.62 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
0.86 xG created 2.50 xGA
- L 0.29 created, 2.80 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 0.67 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- D 1.03 created, 1.48 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.97 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 1.06 created, 5.21 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 1.11 created, 1.96 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +13.9% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +5.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veres Rivne | 47.0% | 46.2% | +0.9 pp | 2.13 |
| Draw | 29.3% | 27.1% | +2.2 pp | 3.41 |
| Kudrivka | 23.6% | 26.7% | −3.1 pp | 4.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | 69.2% | +9.9 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 30.8% | −9.9 pp | 4.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 42.1% | +9.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 57.9% | −9.7 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Kudrivka sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 days before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.