Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 14:30
Full timeZoria Luhansk 0:2 Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Dynamo Kyiv's attack: 1.01 xG against 1.60 projected (−0.59). Zoria Luhansk produced 0.68 xG against 0.97 projected (−0.29).
The model against the result
- Zoria Luhansk
- 20%
- Draw
- 29%
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 51% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Dynamo Kyiv produced 0.59 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 15
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 5
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.07
Recent form
1.42 xG created 1.39 xGA
- W 2.44 created, 0.84 conceded against Oleksandria
- D 1.01 created, 1.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- W 2.46 created, 0.78 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- W 0.83 created, 1.87 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- D 1.08 created, 0.87 conceded against Veres Rivne
- D 0.70 created, 2.31 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
2.08 xG created 0.95 xGA
- W 2.65 created, 0.73 conceded against SC Poltava
- W 2.77 created, 1.63 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 1.64 created, 0.37 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 2.62 created, 1.42 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- D 1.76 created, 0.49 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.05 created, 1.04 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +11.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.15 | +11.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +1.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.33 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoria Luhansk | 19.9% | 17.7% | +2.2 pp | 5.04 |
| Draw | 29.2% | 23.3% | +5.9 pp | 3.42 |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 50.9% | 59.0% | −8.1 pp | 1.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 50.0% | +5.2 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.8% | 50.0% | −5.2 pp | 2.23 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | 78.3% | −1.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 21.7% | +1.5 pp | 4.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.4% | 56.3% | −7.9 pp | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 43.7% | +7.9 pp | 1.94 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zoria Luhansk sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.