IF Gnistan 1:1 KuPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

IF Gnistan Home

KuPS Away

KuPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Gnistan: 29%
Draw: 27% What happened
KuPS: 44%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Gnistan

2.06 xG created 1.79 xGA

W 4.54 created, 0.60 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
W 1.33 created, 1.19 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.78 created, 3.74 conceded against Inter Turku
L 2.27 created, 1.17 conceded against KuPS
D 1.02 created, 2.63 conceded against SJK
W 1.40 created, 1.43 conceded against HJK

KuPS

1.96 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 3.31 created, 0.80 conceded against SJK
W 2.42 created, 1.08 conceded against VPS
W 1.17 created, 2.27 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.69 created, 2.01 conceded against TPS
W 1.17 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.97 created, 1.47 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Gnistan: 0 won · 1 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Gnistan against KuPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.57	+7.1%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+2.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Gnistan	29.0%	26.8%	+2.2 pp	3.45
Draw	27.2%	25.3%	+2.0 pp	3.67
KuPS	43.8%	47.9%	−4.2 pp	2.29

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.1%	58.9%	+9.3 pp	1.47
Both teams not to score	31.9%	41.1%	−9.3 pp	3.14
Over 1.5 goals	86.1%	79.2%	+6.9 pp	1.16
Under 1.5 goals	13.9%	20.8%	−6.9 pp	7.21
Over 2.5 goals	63.2%	58.2%	+5.0 pp	1.58
Under 2.5 goals	36.8%	41.8%	−5.0 pp	2.72

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Gnistan sample: 20 matches
KuPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.