Ilves 2:0 FF Jaro: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Tuesday, 08/09/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · Veikkausliiga

Ilves Home 1.85 xG

FF Jaro Away 0.58 xG

20 The scoreline reflected the chances

Ilves were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was FF Jaro's attack: 0.58 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.90).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Ilves: 42% What happened
Draw: 27%
FF Jaro: 31%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Ilves 1.74 1.85 +0.11

FF Jaro 1.48 0.58 -0.90

FF Jaro produced 0.90 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Ilves FF Jaro

Shots: 14; 9
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 8; 6
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.06

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Ilves

1.61 xG created 1.52 xGA

W 3.33 created, 0.98 conceded against TPS
W 1.61 created, 1.38 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.27 created, 1.41 conceded against AC Oulu
W 2.04 created, 1.53 conceded against IFK Mariehamn
L 0.66 created, 1.18 conceded against VPS
L 0.72 created, 2.61 conceded against HJK

FF Jaro

1.51 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 1.61 created, 1.42 conceded against SJK
L 0.42 created, 1.89 conceded against FC Lahti
L 2.97 created, 1.98 conceded against VPS
L 0.91 created, 1.87 conceded against HJK
L 0.93 created, 0.68 conceded against AC Oulu
L 2.22 created, 1.15 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Ilves: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged1 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Ilves against FF Jaro before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FF Jaro to win	5.00	+53.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+15.1%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+8.2%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+4.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+2.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Ilves	42.3%	58.1%	−15.9 pp	2.36
Draw	27.1%	23.3%	+3.8 pp	3.70
FF Jaro	30.7%	18.6%	+12.1 pp	3.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.1%	55.7%	+13.3 pp	1.45
Both teams not to score	30.9%	44.3%	−13.3 pp	3.23
Over 1.5 goals	86.7%	79.2%	+7.5 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.3%	20.8%	−7.5 pp	7.53
Over 2.5 goals	64.4%	58.2%	+6.2 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.6%	41.8%	−6.2 pp	2.81

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Ilves sample: 20 matches
FF Jaro sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.