Inter Turku 1:0 VPS: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

Inter Turku Home 0.81 xG

VPS Away 0.58 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

Inter Turku were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 51%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Inter Turku's attack: 0.81 xG against 1.65 projected (−0.84). VPS produced 0.58 xG against 1.03 projected (−0.45).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Inter Turku: 51% What happened
Draw: 29%
VPS: 21%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Inter Turku 1.65 0.81 -0.84

VPS 1.03 0.58 -0.45

Inter Turku produced 0.84 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Inter Turku VPS

Shots: 10; 11
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.05

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Inter Turku

2.00 xG created 1.24 xGA

D 1.62 created, 0.65 conceded against FF Jaro
L 3.74 created, 1.78 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 0.87 created, 0.99 conceded against VPS
D 3.02 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Lahti
D 2.27 created, 1.03 conceded against TPS
L 0.48 created, 1.22 conceded against HJK

VPS

1.21 xG created 1.93 xGA

L 1.08 created, 2.42 conceded against KuPS
L 0.99 created, 0.87 conceded against Inter Turku
W 1.98 created, 2.97 conceded against FF Jaro
L 0.97 created, 2.26 conceded against TPS
W 1.18 created, 0.66 conceded against Ilves
W 1.06 created, 2.41 conceded against AC Oulu

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Inter Turku: 3 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Inter Turku against VPS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
VPS to win	6.00	+23.4%	Lost
VPS 2+ goals	4.00	+9.5%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.08	+6.8%	Lost
VPS to score	1.57	+5.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+5.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+3.5%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Inter Turku	50.9%	56.6%	−5.6 pp	1.96
Draw	28.5%	27.7%	+0.8 pp	3.51
VPS	20.6%	15.7%	+4.8 pp	4.86

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Inter Turku to score	83.3%	81.1%	+2.2 pp	1.20
Inter Turku not to score	16.7%	18.9%	−2.2 pp	5.99
VPS to score	67.0%	58.9%	+8.1 pp	1.49
VPS not to score	33.0%	41.1%	−8.1 pp	3.03
Both teams to score	57.5%	52.0%	+5.5 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	48.0%	−5.5 pp	2.35
Inter Turku 2+ goals	50.9%	51.5%	−0.6 pp	1.97
Inter Turku at most 1 goal	49.1%	48.5%	+0.6 pp	2.04
VPS 2+ goals	27.4%	23.4%	+4.0 pp	3.65
VPS at most 1 goal	72.6%	76.6%	−4.0 pp	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	70.9%	+7.9 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	29.1%	−7.9 pp	4.73
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	45.4%	+6.0 pp	1.94
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	54.6%	−6.0 pp	2.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Inter Turku sample: 20 matches
VPS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.