Veikkausliiga expected points table 2026/2027
Every Veikkausliiga club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Inter Turku lead on expected points with 43.12 over 22 matches with xG. That is 5.84 clear of KuPS. IF Gnistan sit 3 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 4 against 7 on expected points. SJK sit 5 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 10 against 5 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Turku INT | 25 | 48 | 43.12 | −4.12 | 2 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 2 | KuPS KUP | 25 | 48 | 37.28 | +6.72 | 1 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 3 | HJK HJK | 25 | 43 | 36.51 | −0.51 | 3 | Same place as on expected points |
| 4 | FC Lahti FCL | 25 | 36 | 33.18 | −0.18 | 5 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | SJK SJK | 25 | 24 | 32.69 | −9.69 | 10 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Ilves ILV | 25 | 34 | 30.94 | +0.06 | 6 | Same place as on expected points |
| 7 | IF Gnistan IFG | 25 | 41 | 30.07 | +2.93 | 4 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | VPS VPS | 25 | 34 | 29.93 | +3.07 | 7 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | TPS TPS | 25 | 32 | 27.77 | −2.77 | 9 | Same place as on expected points |
| 10 | AC Oulu ACO | 25 | 34 | 24.91 | +6.09 | 8 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 11 | FF Jaro FFJ | 25 | 17 | 24.24 | −11.24 | 12 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 12 | IFK Mariehamn IFK | 25 | 17 | 15.98 | +1.02 | 11 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
12 of the 12 clubs here have expected figures over fewer matches than they have played. For those clubs every expected figure counts only the matches with xG, and the goals it is compared with come from those same matches.
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.