AIK 1:4 Västerås SK: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

AIK Home 3.23 xG

Västerås SK Away 3.68 xG

14 The scoreline reflected the chances

Västerås SK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Västerås SK's attack: 3.68 xG against 1.79 projected (+1.89). AIK produced 3.23 xG against 1.67 projected (+1.56).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AIK: 34%
Draw: 26%
Västerås SK: 39% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AIK 1.67 3.23 +1.56

Västerås SK 1.79 3.68 +1.89

Västerås SK produced 1.89 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AIK Västerås SK

Shots: 16; 17
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 11; 15
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.22

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AIK

1.49 xG created 2.58 xGA

W 1.92 created, 1.24 conceded against GAIS
D 0.29 created, 2.96 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.35 created, 2.36 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.96 created, 2.39 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.49 created, 2.26 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 1.91 created, 4.26 conceded against Hammarby IF

Västerås SK

1.26 xG created 2.16 xGA

L 1.32 created, 3.93 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 0.67 created, 2.64 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.99 created, 2.19 conceded against IF Elfsborg
D 0.98 created, 1.11 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 2.23 created, 2.15 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.34 created, 0.95 conceded against IK Sirius

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AIK: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Västerås SK 1:1 AIK 17/05/2026 xG 1.81 – 0.69

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AIK against Västerås SK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Västerås SK to win	4.00	+57.8%	Won
Västerås SK 2+ goals	2.63	+44.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+21.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+17.6%	Won
Västerås SK to score	1.33	+14.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+9.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AIK	34.5%	50.6%	−16.1 pp	2.90
Draw	26.1%	26.0%	+0.1 pp	3.83
Västerås SK	39.5%	23.4%	+16.1 pp	2.53

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AIK to score	83.7%	81.1%	+2.6 pp	1.19
AIK not to score	16.3%	18.9%	−2.6 pp	6.13
Västerås SK to score	85.5%	70.9%	+14.6 pp	1.17
Västerås SK not to score	14.5%	29.1%	−14.6 pp	6.91
Both teams to score	72.8%	57.7%	+15.2 pp	1.37
Both teams not to score	27.2%	42.3%	−15.2 pp	3.68
AIK 2+ goals	51.5%	50.0%	+1.5 pp	1.94
AIK at most 1 goal	48.5%	50.0%	−1.5 pp	2.06
Västerås SK 2+ goals	55.2%	35.5%	+19.7 pp	1.81
Västerås SK at most 1 goal	44.8%	64.5%	−19.7 pp	2.23
Over 1.5 goals	89.3%	76.6%	+12.7 pp	1.12
Under 1.5 goals	10.7%	23.4%	−12.7 pp	9.35
Over 2.5 goals	69.3%	53.9%	+15.4 pp	1.44
Under 2.5 goals	30.7%	46.1%	−15.4 pp	3.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AIK sample: 20 matches
Västerås SK sample: 17 matches
Computed: 6 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.