Monday, 02/11/2026 at 19:00
29d 1h to kick-offGAIS – AIK
Model updated 4 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- GAIS
- 57%
- Draw
- 22%
- AIK
- 20%
| GAIS | Draw | AIK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 4.46 | 4.88 |
- Total goals
- 3.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 73%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans GAIS
57% GAIS to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 15th
- GAIS attack v AIK defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 9th
- GAIS defence v AIK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.31 – 1.43
- GAIS v AIK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | GAIS | AIK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.75 · 7th | 1.57 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.34 · 4th | 2.29 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.41 · 6th | -0.72 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.61 · 6th | 1.00 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | -0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- GAIS clean sheet
- 21%
- GAIS 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 27%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:1
- 8.9%
- 3:1
- 8.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- GAIS sample
- 20 matches
- AIK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · GAIS
- 9 matches
- Away xG sample · AIK
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.