AIK 1:1 Mjällby AIF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Wednesday, 16/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

AIK Home 3.15 xG

Mjällby AIF Away 2.14 xG

11 AIK had the better chances, but it finished level

AIK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was AIK's attack: 3.15 xG against 1.98 projected (+1.17). Mjällby AIF produced 2.14 xG against 1.87 projected (+0.27).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AIK: 40%
Draw: 24% What happened
Mjällby AIF: 35%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AIK 1.98 3.15 +1.17

Mjällby AIF 1.87 2.14 +0.27

AIK produced 1.17 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AIK Mjällby AIF

Shots: 22; 15
On target: 7; 7
Inside the box: 16; 10
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.14

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AIK

1.71 xG created 2.99 xGA

D 0.29 created, 2.96 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.35 created, 2.36 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.96 created, 2.39 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 1.49 created, 2.26 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
W 1.91 created, 4.26 conceded against Hammarby IF
L 3.23 created, 3.68 conceded against Västerås SK

Mjällby AIF

1.64 xG created 2.11 xGA

L 4.78 created, 1.28 conceded against AIK
L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.17 created, 3.00 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
D 1.02 created, 1.70 conceded against BK Häcken

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

AIK: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AIK against Mjällby AIF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+29.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+25.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+11.0%	Won
Mjällby AIF to win	3.10	+9.8%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AIK	40.2%	43.7%	−3.4 pp	2.49
Draw	24.4%	26.1%	−1.7 pp	4.10
Mjällby AIF	35.4%	30.3%	+5.1 pp	2.82

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	77.8%	57.7%	+20.1 pp	1.29
Both teams not to score	22.2%	42.3%	−20.1 pp	4.50
Over 1.5 goals	92.5%	78.3%	+14.2 pp	1.08
Under 1.5 goals	7.5%	21.7%	−14.2 pp	13.38
Over 2.5 goals	76.3%	55.3%	+21.0 pp	1.31
Under 2.5 goals	23.7%	44.7%	−21.0 pp	4.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AIK sample: 20 matches
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.