BK Häcken 1:1 Mjällby AIF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

BK Häcken Home 1.70 xG

Mjällby AIF Away 1.02 xG

11 BK Häcken had the better chances, but it finished level

BK Häcken were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was BK Häcken's attack: 1.70 xG against 2.07 projected (−0.37). Mjällby AIF produced 1.02 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.30).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

BK Häcken: 54%
Draw: 24% What happened
Mjällby AIF: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

BK Häcken 2.07 1.70 -0.37

Mjällby AIF 1.32 1.02 -0.30

BK Häcken produced 0.37 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

BK Häcken Mjällby AIF

Shots: 17; 11
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 10; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

BK Häcken

1.66 xG created 1.74 xGA

D 0.92 created, 1.62 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.38 created, 3.17 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.78 created, 1.21 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 1.57 created, 0.64 conceded against IK Sirius
L 2.15 created, 2.23 conceded against Västerås SK
D 2.14 created, 1.54 conceded against GAIS

Mjällby AIF

1.65 xG created 2.40 xGA

D 1.10 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Sirius
L 4.78 created, 1.28 conceded against AIK
L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.17 created, 3.00 conceded against Djurgårdens IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

BK Häcken: 1 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged4 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on BK Häcken against Mjällby AIF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	3.25	+27.0%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to win	5.25	+13.4%	Lost
Mjällby AIF to score	1.44	+10.0%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+8.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.53	+4.4%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+3.4%	Won
Draw	4.20	+2.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
BK Häcken	54.0%	59.8%	−5.8 pp	1.85
Draw	24.4%	22.4%	+2.1 pp	4.09
Mjällby AIF	21.6%	17.9%	+3.7 pp	4.63

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
BK Häcken to score	89.4%	86.4%	+2.9 pp	1.12
BK Häcken not to score	10.6%	13.6%	−2.9 pp	9.40
Mjällby AIF to score	76.1%	64.5%	+11.6 pp	1.31
Mjällby AIF not to score	23.9%	35.5%	−11.6 pp	4.19
Both teams to score	69.3%	58.9%	+10.4 pp	1.44
Both teams not to score	30.7%	41.1%	−10.4 pp	3.26
BK Häcken 2+ goals	63.5%	60.8%	+2.7 pp	1.57
BK Häcken at most 1 goal	36.5%	39.2%	−2.7 pp	2.74
Mjällby AIF 2+ goals	39.1%	29.1%	+10.0 pp	2.56
Mjällby AIF at most 1 goal	60.9%	70.9%	−10.0 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	88.6%	81.1%	+7.5 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.4%	18.9%	−7.5 pp	8.77
Over 2.5 goals	68.1%	61.0%	+7.1 pp	1.47
Under 2.5 goals	31.9%	39.0%	−7.1 pp	3.13

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
BK Häcken sample: 20 matches
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.