GAIS 0:0 BK Häcken: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

GAIS Home 1.54 xG

BK Häcken Away 2.14 xG

00 BK Häcken had the better chances, but it finished level

GAIS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was BK Häcken's attack: 2.14 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.79).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

GAIS: 44%
Draw: 28% What happened
BK Häcken: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

GAIS 1.68 1.54 -0.14

BK Häcken 1.35 2.14 +0.79

BK Häcken produced 0.79 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

GAIS BK Häcken

Shots: 9; 13
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

GAIS

2.23 xG created 1.44 xGA

L 1.24 created, 1.92 conceded against AIK
D 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.81 created, 0.90 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.35 created, 0.22 conceded against Malmö FF
L 1.01 created, 3.00 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.99 created, 1.13 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna

BK Häcken

1.79 xG created 1.53 xGA

D 2.96 created, 0.29 conceded against AIK
D 0.92 created, 1.62 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 0.38 created, 3.17 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.78 created, 1.21 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 1.57 created, 0.64 conceded against IK Sirius
L 2.15 created, 2.23 conceded against Västerås SK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

GAIS: 2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost

Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on GAIS against BK Häcken before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GAIS to win	2.30	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
GAIS	43.8%	40.8%	+3.0 pp	2.28
Draw	28.0%	26.8%	+1.1 pp	3.58
BK Häcken	28.3%	32.4%	−4.1 pp	3.54

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.8%	62.5%	+3.3 pp	1.52
Both teams not to score	34.2%	37.5%	−3.3 pp	2.92
Over 1.5 goals	84.3%	79.2%	+5.1 pp	1.19
Under 1.5 goals	15.7%	20.8%	−5.1 pp	6.37
Over 2.5 goals	60.0%	57.1%	+2.9 pp	1.67
Under 2.5 goals	40.0%	42.9%	−2.9 pp	2.50

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
GAIS sample: 20 matches
BK Häcken sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.