Mjällby AIF 1:4 IFK Göteborg: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Mjällby AIF Home

IFK Göteborg Away

IFK Göteborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 4–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Mjällby AIF: 32%
Draw: 24%
IFK Göteborg: 44% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Mjällby AIF

1.65 xG created 2.40 xGA

D 1.10 created, 3.43 conceded against IK Sirius
L 4.78 created, 1.28 conceded against AIK
L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.17 created, 3.00 conceded against Djurgårdens IF

IFK Göteborg

2.28 xG created 1.51 xGA

W 3.80 created, 0.49 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 1.85 created, 2.97 conceded against IK Sirius
W 2.21 created, 1.92 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.71 created, 0.99 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.13 created, 1.69 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 2.01 created, 0.98 conceded against Örgryte IS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Mjällby AIF: 2 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Mjällby AIF against IFK Göteborg before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+31.9%	Won
IFK Göteborg to win	3.00	+31.3%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+20.6%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+12.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mjällby AIF	31.9%	40.9%	−9.0 pp	3.13
Draw	24.3%	27.7%	−3.4 pp	4.11
IFK Göteborg	43.8%	31.4%	+12.4 pp	2.28

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	76.8%	58.9%	+17.9 pp	1.30
Both teams not to score	23.2%	41.1%	−17.9 pp	4.30
Over 1.5 goals	92.1%	76.6%	+15.5 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	7.9%	23.4%	−15.5 pp	12.64
Over 2.5 goals	75.4%	53.9%	+21.4 pp	1.33
Under 2.5 goals	24.6%	46.1%	−21.4 pp	4.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
IFK Göteborg sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.