Djurgårdens IF 2:0 GAIS: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Djurgårdens IF Home

GAIS Away

Djurgårdens IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Djurgårdens IF: 49% What happened
Draw: 27%
GAIS: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Djurgårdens IF

2.45 xG created 0.93 xGA

D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK
W 3.00 created, 0.17 conceded against Mjällby AIF

GAIS

2.28 xG created 1.48 xGA

D 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.81 created, 0.90 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.35 created, 0.22 conceded against Malmö FF
L 1.01 created, 3.00 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.99 created, 1.13 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
D 1.54 created, 2.14 conceded against BK Häcken

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Djurgårdens IF: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Djurgårdens IF against GAIS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
GAIS to win	6.50	+60.6%	Lost
GAIS 2+ goals	3.50	+33.8%	Lost
GAIS to score	1.50	+13.3%	Lost
Draw	4.20	+12.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+10.9%	Lost
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	2.38	+3.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF	48.6%	63.0%	−14.4 pp	2.06
Draw	26.7%	22.5%	+4.2 pp	3.75
GAIS	24.7%	14.5%	+10.2 pp	4.05

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Djurgårdens IF to score	86.2%	86.4%	−0.2 pp	1.16
Djurgårdens IF not to score	13.8%	13.6%	+0.2 pp	7.25
GAIS to score	75.5%	62.5%	+13.0 pp	1.32
GAIS not to score	24.5%	37.5%	−13.0 pp	4.08
Both teams to score	66.5%	55.7%	+10.8 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.5%	44.3%	−10.8 pp	2.99
Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals	56.5%	60.8%	−4.3 pp	1.77
Djurgårdens IF at most 1 goal	43.5%	39.2%	+4.3 pp	2.30
GAIS 2+ goals	38.2%	26.9%	+11.3 pp	2.62
GAIS at most 1 goal	61.8%	73.1%	−11.3 pp	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	85.6%	81.1%	+4.6 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.4%	18.9%	−4.6 pp	6.96
Over 2.5 goals	62.4%	59.9%	+2.5 pp	1.60
Under 2.5 goals	37.6%	40.1%	−2.5 pp	2.66

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
GAIS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.