Kalmar FF 0:1 Djurgårdens IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Kalmar FF Home

Djurgårdens IF Away

Djurgårdens IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kalmar FF: 27%
Draw: 28%
Djurgårdens IF: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kalmar FF

1.13 xG created 1.70 xGA

W 0.68 created, 0.49 conceded against Mjällby AIF
D 1.62 created, 0.92 conceded against BK Häcken
L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Västerås SK
L 1.94 created, 1.31 conceded against Halmstads BK

Djurgårdens IF

2.45 xG created 0.93 xGA

D 0.73 created, 0.77 conceded against Örgryte IS
W 2.13 created, 1.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 3.93 created, 1.32 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.64 created, 0.67 conceded against Västerås SK
L 2.26 created, 1.49 conceded against AIK
W 3.00 created, 0.17 conceded against Mjällby AIF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kalmar FF: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Djurgårdens IF 3:2 Kalmar FF 12/04/2026 xG 3.86 – 1.13

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged0 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kalmar FF against Djurgårdens IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Kalmar FF to win	4.75	+26.7%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+10.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+3.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kalmar FF	26.7%	20.0%	+6.7 pp	3.75
Draw	28.3%	24.3%	+4.0 pp	3.53
Djurgårdens IF	45.0%	55.7%	−10.7 pp	2.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	64.2%	57.7%	+6.5 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	35.8%	42.3%	−6.5 pp	2.79
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	78.3%	+4.8 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	21.7%	−4.8 pp	5.93
Over 2.5 goals	58.0%	56.3%	+1.7 pp	1.72
Under 2.5 goals	42.0%	43.7%	−1.7 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kalmar FF sample: 15 matches
Djurgårdens IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.