Mjällby AIF 0:3 GAIS: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Mjällby AIF Home 1.20 xG

GAIS Away 1.34 xG

03 The chances were evenly matched

GAIS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was GAIS's attack: 1.34 xG against 1.96 projected (−0.62). Mjällby AIF produced 1.20 xG against 1.59 projected (−0.39).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Mjällby AIF: 29%
Draw: 25%
GAIS: 45% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Mjällby AIF 1.59 1.20 -0.39

GAIS 1.96 1.34 -0.62

GAIS produced 0.62 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Mjällby AIF GAIS

Shots: 15; 15
On target: 7; 5
Inside the box: 8; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Mjällby AIF

1.20 xG created 2.43 xGA

L 0.49 created, 0.68 conceded against Kalmar FF
L 1.87 created, 3.47 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 1.51 created, 2.56 conceded against IK Sirius
L 0.17 created, 3.00 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
D 1.02 created, 1.70 conceded against BK Häcken
D 2.14 created, 3.15 conceded against AIK

GAIS

2.28 xG created 1.48 xGA

D 2.97 created, 1.49 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 3.81 created, 0.90 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.35 created, 0.22 conceded against Malmö FF
L 1.01 created, 3.00 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.99 created, 1.13 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
D 1.54 created, 2.14 conceded against BK Häcken

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Mjällby AIF: 1 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Mjällby AIF against GAIS before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+20.7%	Won
Both teams to score	1.62	+18.5%	Lost
GAIS to win	2.45	+11.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+10.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Mjällby AIF	29.4%	35.1%	−5.7 pp	3.40
Draw	25.2%	26.3%	−1.1 pp	3.97
GAIS	45.4%	38.6%	+6.8 pp	2.20

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	73.4%	57.7%	+15.7 pp	1.36
Both teams not to score	26.6%	42.3%	−15.7 pp	3.76
Over 1.5 goals	90.1%	76.6%	+13.5 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	9.9%	23.4%	−13.5 pp	10.07
Over 2.5 goals	71.0%	55.3%	+15.7 pp	1.41
Under 2.5 goals	29.0%	44.7%	−15.7 pp	3.45

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Mjällby AIF sample: 20 matches
GAIS sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.