Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 16:30
32d 19h to kick-offKalmar FF – IK Sirius
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kalmar FF
- 33%
- Draw
- 27%
- IK Sirius
- 40%
| Kalmar FF | Draw | IK Sirius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.01 | 3.69 | 2.52 |
- Total goals
- 3.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans IK Sirius
40% IK Sirius to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 8th
- IK Sirius attack v Kalmar FF defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 12th
- IK Sirius defence v Kalmar FF attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.03 vs -1.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.56 – 1.70
- Kalmar FF v IK Sirius
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kalmar FF | IK Sirius |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.31 · 13th | (better) 2.13 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.74 · 9th | (better) 1.34 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.43 · 11th | (better) +0.79 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.21 · 10th | (better) 1.84 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.15 | (better) -0.03 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- IK Sirius clean sheet
- 18%
- IK Sirius 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kalmar FF sample
- 17 matches
- IK Sirius sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kalmar FF
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · IK Sirius
- 9 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.