Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeÖrgryte IS 1:2 IK Sirius
IK Sirius were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was IK Sirius's attack: 1.16 xG against 2.23 projected (−1.07).
The model against the result
- Örgryte IS
- 22%
- Draw
- 23%
- IK Sirius
- 55% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
IK Sirius produced 1.07 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 5
- On target
- 1
- 3
- Inside the box
- 7
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.23
Recent form
1.45 xG created 2.89 xGA
1.65 xG created 1.41 xGA
- D 2.16 created, 0.55 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
- L 2.56 created, 1.51 conceded against Mjällby AIF
- L 0.64 created, 1.57 conceded against BK Häcken
- L 1.72 created, 1.77 conceded against Malmö FF
- W 0.95 created, 1.34 conceded against Västerås SK
- W 1.86 created, 1.71 conceded against Degerfors IF
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged5 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS 2+ goals | 3.25 | +39.3% | Lost |
| Örgryte IS to win | 5.50 | +19.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +17.2% | Won |
| Örgryte IS to score | 1.44 | +13.4% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | +11.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +6.1% | Won |
| IK Sirius 2+ goals | 1.50 | +1.3% | Won |
| Draw | 4.33 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS | 21.7% | 17.1% | +4.6 pp | 4.61 |
| Draw | 23.1% | 21.7% | +1.5 pp | 4.32 |
| IK Sirius | 55.2% | 61.3% | −6.1 pp | 1.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Örgryte IS to score | 78.6% | 64.5% | +14.0 pp | 1.27 |
| Örgryte IS not to score | 21.4% | 35.5% | −14.0 pp | 4.66 |
| IK Sirius to score | 91.0% | 88.1% | +2.9 pp | 1.10 |
| IK Sirius not to score | 9.0% | 11.9% | −2.9 pp | 11.12 |
| Both teams to score | 72.6% | 57.7% | +14.9 pp | 1.38 |
| Both teams not to score | 27.4% | 42.3% | −14.9 pp | 3.65 |
| Örgryte IS 2+ goals | 42.9% | 29.1% | +13.8 pp | 2.33 |
| Örgryte IS at most 1 goal | 57.1% | 70.9% | −13.8 pp | 1.75 |
| IK Sirius 2+ goals | 67.5% | 62.5% | +5.0 pp | 1.48 |
| IK Sirius at most 1 goal | 32.5% | 37.5% | −5.0 pp | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.9% | 81.1% | +9.8 pp | 1.10 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.1% | 18.9% | −9.8 pp | 11.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.9% | 61.0% | +11.9 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.1% | 39.0% | −11.9 pp | 3.69 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Örgryte IS sample
- 20 matches
- IK Sirius sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 8 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.