Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:20
Full timeIK Sirius 2:0 Degerfors IF
IK Sirius were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Degerfors IF's attack: 1.71 xG against 1.18 projected (+0.53).
The model against the result
- IK Sirius
- 58% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- Degerfors IF
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Degerfors IF produced 0.53 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 15
- On target
- 8
- 7
- Inside the box
- 12
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.11
Recent form
1.86 xG created 1.29 xGA
- W 3.10 created, 0.97 conceded against Halmstads BK
- D 2.16 created, 0.55 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
- L 2.56 created, 1.51 conceded against Mjällby AIF
- L 0.64 created, 1.57 conceded against BK Häcken
- L 1.72 created, 1.77 conceded against Malmö FF
- W 0.95 created, 1.34 conceded against Västerås SK
1.40 xG created 1.72 xGA
- L 1.92 created, 2.21 conceded against IFK Göteborg
- W 0.70 created, 2.53 conceded against Malmö FF
- W 1.69 created, 1.13 conceded against IFK Göteborg
- L 1.08 created, 2.05 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
- L 0.18 created, 1.63 conceded against IF Elfsborg
- W 2.83 created, 0.80 conceded against Halmstads BK
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Degerfors IF 2+ goals | 4.00 | +34.3% | Lost |
| Degerfors IF to win | 7.00 | +27.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +15.4% | Lost |
| Degerfors IF to score | 1.57 | +13.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +8.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +3.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +1.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Sirius | 57.8% | 65.9% | −8.1 pp | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24.0% | 20.8% | +3.2 pp | 4.17 |
| Degerfors IF | 18.2% | 13.4% | +4.9 pp | 5.49 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Sirius to score | 89.6% | 89.4% | +0.2 pp | 1.12 |
| IK Sirius not to score | 10.4% | 10.6% | −0.2 pp | 9.60 |
| Degerfors IF to score | 72.2% | 58.9% | +13.3 pp | 1.39 |
| Degerfors IF not to score | 27.8% | 41.1% | −13.3 pp | 3.59 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 53.3% | +12.6 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.1% | 46.7% | −12.6 pp | 2.94 |
| IK Sirius 2+ goals | 64.0% | 64.5% | −0.5 pp | 1.56 |
| IK Sirius at most 1 goal | 36.0% | 35.5% | +0.5 pp | 2.78 |
| Degerfors IF 2+ goals | 33.6% | 23.4% | +10.2 pp | 2.98 |
| Degerfors IF at most 1 goal | 66.4% | 76.6% | −10.2 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | 81.1% | +6.2 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.8% | 18.9% | −6.2 pp | 7.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 59.9% | +5.6 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 40.1% | −5.6 pp | 2.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IK Sirius sample
- 20 matches
- Degerfors IF sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.