Örgryte IS 1:1 Hammarby IF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 14:00

Full time

Match report · Allsvenskan

Örgryte IS Home 0.61 xG

Hammarby IF Away 4.04 xG

11 Hammarby IF had the better chances, but it finished level

Hammarby IF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 75%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Hammarby IF's attack: 4.04 xG against 2.90 projected (+1.14). Örgryte IS produced 0.61 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Örgryte IS: 9%
Draw: 16% What happened
Hammarby IF: 75%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Örgryte IS 1.11 0.61 -0.50

Hammarby IF 2.90 4.04 +1.14

Hammarby IF produced 1.14 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Örgryte IS Hammarby IF

Shots: 2; 24
On target: 1; 10
Inside the box: 2; 15
xG per shot: 0.31; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Örgryte IS

1.67 xG created 2.44 xGA

L 0.92 created, 3.24 conceded against Västerås SK
W 2.36 created, 1.35 conceded against AIK
L 2.39 created, 1.96 conceded against AIK
L 1.29 created, 3.40 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
D 2.09 created, 2.67 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 0.98 created, 2.01 conceded against IFK Göteborg

Hammarby IF

3.31 xG created 0.87 xGA

W 3.32 created, 0.71 conceded against Degerfors IF
D 2.32 created, 0.80 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
W 3.17 created, 0.38 conceded against BK Häcken
W 3.78 created, 0.42 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 3.00 created, 1.01 conceded against GAIS
L 4.26 created, 1.91 conceded against AIK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Örgryte IS: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Hammarby IF 8:1 Örgryte IS 18/04/2026 xG 4.36 – 1.46

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Örgryte IS against Hammarby IF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.75	+18.5%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.33	+5.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.10	+2.7%	Won
Draw	6.50	+2.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Örgryte IS	9.1%	9.8%	−0.7 pp	10.97
Draw	15.8%	14.3%	+1.5 pp	6.33
Hammarby IF	75.1%	76.0%	−0.9 pp	1.33

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.7%	53.3%	+14.4 pp	1.48
Both teams not to score	32.3%	46.7%	−14.4 pp	3.10
Over 1.5 goals	93.4%	86.4%	+7.0 pp	1.07
Under 1.5 goals	6.6%	13.6%	−7.0 pp	15.09
Over 2.5 goals	78.7%	71.8%	+6.9 pp	1.27
Under 2.5 goals	21.3%	28.2%	−6.9 pp	4.70

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Örgryte IS sample: 18 matches
Hammarby IF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 22 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 23 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.