Kalmar FF 0:5 BK Häcken: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Kalmar FF Home 0.88 xG

BK Häcken Away 3.23 xG

05 The scoreline reflected the chances

BK Häcken were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was BK Häcken's attack: 3.23 xG against 1.47 projected (+1.76). Kalmar FF produced 0.88 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.58).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Kalmar FF: 35%
Draw: 29%
BK Häcken: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Kalmar FF 1.46 0.88 -0.58

BK Häcken 1.47 3.23 +1.76

BK Häcken produced 1.76 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Kalmar FF BK Häcken

Shots: 10; 13
On target: 2; 7
Inside the box: 7; 11
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.25

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Kalmar FF

1.33 xG created 1.97 xGA

D 1.62 created, 0.92 conceded against BK Häcken
L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Västerås SK
L 1.94 created, 1.31 conceded against Halmstads BK
L 1.88 created, 2.11 conceded against IF Elfsborg

BK Häcken

1.79 xG created 1.64 xGA

L 0.38 created, 3.17 conceded against Hammarby IF
W 2.78 created, 1.21 conceded against Halmstads BK
W 1.57 created, 0.64 conceded against IK Sirius
L 2.15 created, 2.23 conceded against Västerås SK
D 2.14 created, 1.54 conceded against GAIS
D 1.70 created, 1.02 conceded against Mjällby AIF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Kalmar FF: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

BK Häcken 1:1 Kalmar FF 01/08/2026 xG 0.92 – 1.62

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Kalmar FF against BK Häcken before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+4.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+1.6%	Won
Draw	3.50	+1.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+0.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Kalmar FF	35.3%	33.7%	+1.6 pp	2.83
Draw	28.9%	27.0%	+1.9 pp	3.46
BK Häcken	35.8%	39.3%	−3.5 pp	2.79

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.0%	57.7%	+7.3 pp	1.54
Both teams not to score	35.0%	42.3%	−7.3 pp	2.85
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	76.6%	+6.5 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	23.4%	−6.5 pp	5.92
Over 2.5 goals	58.0%	54.6%	+3.4 pp	1.72
Under 2.5 goals	42.0%	45.4%	−3.4 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Kalmar FF sample: 16 matches
BK Häcken sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.