IF Elfsborg 1:0 Kalmar FF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

IF Elfsborg Home 2.11 xG

Kalmar FF Away 1.88 xG

10 The chances were evenly matched

IF Elfsborg were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Kalmar FF's attack: 1.88 xG against 1.30 projected (+0.58). IF Elfsborg produced 2.11 xG against 1.61 projected (+0.50).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

IF Elfsborg: 43% What happened
Draw: 29%
Kalmar FF: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

IF Elfsborg 1.61 2.11 +0.50

Kalmar FF 1.30 1.88 +0.58

Kalmar FF produced 0.58 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

IF Elfsborg Kalmar FF

Shots: 13; 16
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 9; 10
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

IF Elfsborg

1.94 xG created 1.58 xGA

L 2.44 created, 3.67 conceded against IK Sirius
W 0.92 created, 1.28 conceded against Malmö FF
W 3.47 created, 1.87 conceded against Mjällby AIF
W 2.19 created, 0.99 conceded against Västerås SK
W 1.63 created, 0.18 conceded against Degerfors IF
L 0.98 created, 1.51 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna

Kalmar FF

1.13 xG created 1.70 xGA

W 0.68 created, 0.49 conceded against Mjällby AIF
D 1.62 created, 0.92 conceded against BK Häcken
L 0.99 created, 2.71 conceded against IFK Göteborg
L 0.42 created, 3.78 conceded against Hammarby IF
D 1.11 created, 0.98 conceded against Västerås SK
L 1.94 created, 1.31 conceded against Halmstads BK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

IF Elfsborg: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Kalmar FF 2:1 IF Elfsborg 27/04/2026

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on IF Elfsborg against Kalmar FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Kalmar FF 2+ goals	3.25	+24.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.75	+11.9%	Lost
Kalmar FF to win	3.90	+11.1%	Lost
Kalmar FF to score	1.44	+9.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+3.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.80	+3.3%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+2.9%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Elfsborg	42.9%	50.3%	−7.3 pp	2.33
Draw	28.6%	25.8%	+2.7 pp	3.50
Kalmar FF	28.5%	23.9%	+4.6 pp	3.51

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
IF Elfsborg to score	82.5%	81.1%	+1.4 pp	1.21
IF Elfsborg not to score	17.5%	18.9%	−1.4 pp	5.70
Kalmar FF to score	75.6%	64.5%	+11.1 pp	1.32
Kalmar FF not to score	24.4%	35.5%	−11.1 pp	4.09
Both teams to score	63.9%	53.3%	+10.6 pp	1.56
Both teams not to score	36.1%	46.7%	−10.6 pp	2.77
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals	49.4%	50.0%	−0.6 pp	2.03
IF Elfsborg at most 1 goal	50.6%	50.0%	+0.6 pp	1.98
Kalmar FF 2+ goals	38.3%	29.1%	+9.2 pp	2.61
Kalmar FF at most 1 goal	61.7%	70.9%	−9.2 pp	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	82.7%	75.0%	+7.7 pp	1.21
Under 1.5 goals	17.3%	25.0%	−7.7 pp	5.78
Over 2.5 goals	57.4%	52.6%	+4.8 pp	1.74
Under 2.5 goals	42.6%	47.4%	−4.8 pp	2.35

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
IF Elfsborg sample: 20 matches
Kalmar FF sample: 15 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.