Västerås SK 2:0 Malmö FF: xG & match report · Allsvenskan

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Allsvenskan

Västerås SK Home 0.71 xG

Malmö FF Away 2.82 xG

20 The result went against the chances

Malmö FF were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. Västerås SK won 2–0. The biggest difference was Västerås SK's attack: 0.71 xG against 1.70 projected (−0.99). Malmö FF produced 2.82 xG against 1.85 projected (+0.97).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Västerås SK: 34% What happened
Draw: 26%
Malmö FF: 40%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Västerås SK 1.70 0.71 -0.99

Malmö FF 1.85 2.82 +0.97

Västerås SK produced 0.99 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Västerås SK Malmö FF

Shots: 10; 22
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 6; 15
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Västerås SK

1.65 xG created 2.05 xGA

W 0.67 created, 2.64 conceded against Djurgårdens IF
L 0.99 created, 2.19 conceded against IF Elfsborg
D 0.98 created, 1.11 conceded against Kalmar FF
W 2.23 created, 2.15 conceded against BK Häcken
L 1.34 created, 0.95 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.68 created, 3.23 conceded against AIK

Malmö FF

2.04 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 1.28 created, 0.92 conceded against IF Elfsborg
W 3.22 created, 1.73 conceded against IF Brommapojkarna
L 2.53 created, 0.70 conceded against Degerfors IF
W 0.22 created, 1.35 conceded against GAIS
W 1.77 created, 1.72 conceded against IK Sirius
W 3.24 created, 1.31 conceded against Örgryte IS

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Västerås SK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Malmö FF 2:3 Västerås SK 24/05/2026 xG 1.34 – 0.90

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Västerås SK against Malmö FF before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.70	+21.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+16.5%	Lost
Västerås SK to win	3.30	+12.5%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.20	+8.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Västerås SK	34.1%	28.7%	+5.4 pp	2.93
Draw	25.7%	26.3%	−0.6 pp	3.90
Malmö FF	40.2%	45.1%	−4.8 pp	2.48

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.2%	58.9%	+15.3 pp	1.35
Both teams not to score	25.8%	41.1%	−15.3 pp	3.87
Over 1.5 goals	90.2%	78.3%	+11.9 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	9.8%	21.7%	−11.9 pp	10.23
Over 2.5 goals	71.2%	55.3%	+15.9 pp	1.40
Under 2.5 goals	28.8%	44.7%	−15.9 pp	3.47

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Västerås SK sample: 18 matches
Malmö FF sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.