Wednesday, 02/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeAustria Wien 0:1 WSG Tirol
Austria Wien were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. WSG Tirol won 1–0. The biggest difference was WSG Tirol's attack: 1.69 xG against 0.92 projected (+0.77). Austria Wien produced 0.51 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.68).
Goals
- 66' Drew Murray WSG Tirol · 0.68 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Austria Wien
- 40%
- Draw
- 34%
- WSG Tirol
- 26% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
WSG Tirol produced 0.77 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 6
- 11
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 4
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.17
- Open play xG
- 0.33
- 0.92
- Set-piece xG
- 0.17
- 0.94
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.52 for Austria Wien and 1.83 for WSG Tirol.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
17 shots · 2.36 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Austria Wien
- WSG Tirol
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.58 xG created 1.95 xGA
1.36 xG created 1.64 xGA
- D 0.76 created, 0.38 conceded against FC Blau Weiss Linz
- L 0.30 created, 1.26 conceded against Wolfsberger AC
- D 0.87 created, 2.32 conceded against SK Sturm Graz
- L 0.84 created, 1.48 conceded against SC Rheindorf Altach
- L 2.81 created, 3.47 conceded against Red Bull Salzburg
- W 2.60 created, 0.93 conceded against SC Austria Lustenau
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged6 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +32.6% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +31.7% | Won |
| Austria Wien not to score | 4.50 | +23.4% | Won |
| Draw | 3.60 | +23.0% | Lost |
| Austria Wien at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +20.8% | Won |
| Both teams not to score | 2.05 | +6.7% | Won |
| WSG Tirol at most 1 goal | 1.36 | +4.6% | Won |
| WSG Tirol not to score | 2.75 | +0.9% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Wien | 40.3% | 49.0% | −8.7 pp | 2.48 |
| Draw | 34.2% | 25.9% | +8.3 pp | 2.93 |
| WSG Tirol | 25.6% | 25.2% | +0.4 pp | 3.91 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Wien to score | 72.6% | 79.2% | −6.6 pp | 1.38 |
| Austria Wien not to score | 27.4% | 20.8% | +6.6 pp | 3.65 |
| WSG Tirol to score | 63.3% | 66.3% | −2.9 pp | 1.58 |
| WSG Tirol not to score | 36.7% | 33.7% | +2.9 pp | 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 54.7% | −6.7 pp | 2.08 |
| Both teams not to score | 52.0% | 45.3% | +6.7 pp | 1.92 |
| Austria Wien 2+ goals | 34.1% | 50.0% | −15.9 pp | 2.93 |
| Austria Wien at most 1 goal | 65.9% | 50.0% | +15.9 pp | 1.52 |
| WSG Tirol 2+ goals | 23.3% | 31.3% | −8.0 pp | 4.30 |
| WSG Tirol at most 1 goal | 76.7% | 68.7% | +8.0 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | 76.6% | −9.7 pp | 1.50 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 23.4% | +9.7 pp | 3.02 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.8% | 53.9% | −18.2 pp | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 46.1% | +18.2 pp | 1.56 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- WSG Tirol sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.