xgEdge

Expected goals

Red Bull Salzburg expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Austrian Bundesliga · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Red Bull Salzburg's attacking and defensive expected goals in Austrian Bundesliga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Red Bull Salzburg xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.68 xG per match
#1/12
Attack (xG per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Red Bull Salzburg 2.68
#2 LASK 2.54
#3 SK Rapid Wien 2.26
#4 SV Ried 1.96
#5 SK Sturm Graz 1.83
#6 WSG Tirol 1.52
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.24
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 1.24
#9 Grazer AK 1902 1.14
#10 Wolfsberger AC 1.14
#11 TSV Hartberg 1.01
#12 Austria Wien 0.74
League avg
1.61
Total
18.73 7 matches
Defence
1.08 xGA per match
#2/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 LASK 0.93
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 1.08
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.10
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.29
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.33
#6 SV Ried 1.75
#7 Grazer AK 1902 1.75
#8 WSG Tirol 1.76
#9 Austria Wien 1.85
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 1.89
#11 TSV Hartberg 2.02
#12 Wolfsberger AC 2.53
League avg
1.61
Total
7.56 7 matches
xG difference
+1.60 xGD per match
#2/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 LASK +1.60
#2 Red Bull Salzburg +1.60
#3 SK Rapid Wien +1.16
#4 SK Sturm Graz +0.53
#5 SV Ried +0.22
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach -0.08
#7 WSG Tirol -0.24
#8 Grazer AK 1902 -0.61
#9 SC Austria Lustenau -0.65
#10 TSV Hartberg -1.01
#11 Austria Wien -1.12
#12 Wolfsberger AC -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+11.17 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.33 xPts per match
#2/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 LASK 2.33
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 2.33
#3 SK Rapid Wien 1.95
#4 SK Sturm Graz 1.70
#5 SC Rheindorf Altach 1.42
#6 SV Ried 1.40
#7 WSG Tirol 1.32
#8 Grazer AK 1902 1.20
#9 SC Austria Lustenau 0.93
#10 TSV Hartberg 0.79
#11 Austria Wien 0.77
#12 Wolfsberger AC 0.70
League avg
1.41
Total
16.32 vs 17 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Red Bull Salzburg's underlying numbers are among the best in Austrian Bundesliga. They rank #2 for xG difference at +1.60 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and elite chance quality. Their 18 goals are 0.73 below 18.73 xG, while 17 points are 0.68 above 16.32 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
18 18.73 -0.73 scored 0.73 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
4 7.56 -3.56 conceded 3.56 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
17 16.32 +0.68 0.68 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Red Bull Salzburg are 0.73 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -6.10, against WSG Tirol on Sun 16/08.

Goals
18
xG
18.73
Gap
-0.73
Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 30/08 Wed 02/09 Fri 11/09 Sun 20/09 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -3.11 -5.63 -6.10 -3.81 -1.56 -2.12 -0.73 -3.11 -2.52 -0.47 +2.29 +2.25 -0.56 +1.39 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Red Bull Salzburg: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 TSV Hartberg 1 4.11 -3.11 -3.11
Sun 09/08 Wolfsberger AC 1 3.52 -2.52 -5.63
Sun 16/08 WSG Tirol 3 3.47 -0.47 -6.10
Sun 30/08 Austria Wien 4 1.71 +2.29 -3.81
Wed 02/09 SK Rapid Wien 5 2.75 +2.25 -1.56
Fri 11/09 SV Ried 1 1.56 -0.56 -2.12
Sun 20/09 SK Sturm Graz 3 1.61 +1.39 -0.73

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Red Bull Salzburg xG trend

Current form +1.36 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 7 of 7 matches.

npxG · last 6
2.44
npxGA · last 6
1.08
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +3.26 Sat 01/08 +2.59 Sun 09/08 +1.15 Sun 16/08 +1.07 Sun 30/08 +1.88 Wed 02/09 +0.61 Fri 11/09 +0.85 Sun 20/09 +1.63 season avg
Red Bull Salzburg: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 TSV Hartberg 3.92 0.66 +3.26 +3.26
Sun 09/08 Wolfsberger AC 3.52 0.93 +2.59 +2.93
Sun 16/08 WSG Tirol 3.62 2.47 +1.15 +2.33
Sun 30/08 Austria Wien 1.76 0.69 +1.07 +2.02
Wed 02/09 SK Rapid Wien 2.83 0.95 +1.88 +1.99
Fri 11/09 SV Ried 1.48 0.87 +0.61 +1.76
Sun 20/09 SK Sturm Graz 1.43 0.58 +0.85 +1.63

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.65 npxG and 1.02 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
−0.13 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
tied number 7 hardest of 12 in Austrian Bundesliga
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.13 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 10 hardest of 12

  1. SK Sturm Graz Home +0.41
  2. SV Ried Away −0.17
  3. SK Rapid Wien Home +0.30
  4. Austria Wien Home −0.22
  5. WSG Tirol Away −0.25
  6. Wolfsberger AC Away −0.48
  7. TSV Hartberg Home −0.52

Last 5

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 7 hardest of 12

  1. SK Sturm Graz Home +0.41
  2. SV Ried Away −0.17
  3. SK Rapid Wien Home +0.30
  4. Austria Wien Home −0.22
  5. WSG Tirol Away −0.25

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Red Bull Salzburg shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Red Bull Salzburg take 20.4 shots a match (league 14.1) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #2 in Austrian Bundesliga for volume and #2 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 62%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 27%).

Attack

Shot volume
20.4 shots per match
#2/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 21.0
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 20.4
=3 SK Rapid Wien 16.1
=3 SK Sturm Graz 16.1
#5 SV Ried 15.6
#6 SC Austria Lustenau 14.1
#7 Grazer AK 1902 12.7
#8 Wolfsberger AC 11.9
#9 SC Rheindorf Altach 11.7
#10 WSG Tirol 11.0
#11 Austria Wien 9.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 9.0
League avg
14.1
Total
143 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#2/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SK Rapid Wien 0.13
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 0.13
#3 LASK 0.11
#4 SV Ried 0.11
#5 WSG Tirol 0.10
#6 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.10
#7 TSV Hartberg 0.10
#8 Wolfsberger AC 0.09
#9 SK Sturm Graz 0.09
#10 SC Austria Lustenau 0.08
#11 Grazer AK 1902 0.08
#12 Austria Wien 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
18.56 npxG from 143 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.0 shots per match
#2/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 LASK 7.7
#2 Red Bull Salzburg 11.0
#3 SK Rapid Wien 12.1
#4 WSG Tirol 12.4
#5 Austria Wien 13.0
=6 SC Rheindorf Altach 13.9
=6 SK Sturm Graz 13.9
#8 SC Austria Lustenau 15.0
#9 Grazer AK 1902 16.1
#10 SV Ried 17.0
#11 Wolfsberger AC 17.6
#12 TSV Hartberg 19.6
League avg
14.1
Total
77 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.09 npxGA per shot
#6/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Austrian Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 SK Sturm Graz 0.08
#2 SV Ried 0.09
#3 SK Rapid Wien 0.09
#4 TSV Hartberg 0.09
#5 SC Austria Lustenau 0.09
#6 Red Bull Salzburg 0.09
#7 SC Rheindorf Altach 0.09
#8 Grazer AK 1902 0.10
#9 LASK 0.10
#10 Wolfsberger AC 0.13
#11 Austria Wien 0.14
#12 WSG Tirol 0.14
League avg
0.10
Total
7.15 npxGA from 77 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 62%

From 88 of 143 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

55% allowed inside the box

League avg 62%

From 42 of 77 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 4.5 of 18.6 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

65% open play · 35% set pieces

League avg 27% set pieces

From 2.5 of 7.2 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Red Bull Salzburg home and away xG

Red Bull Salzburg per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.55 2.85
xGA / match 0.75 1.52
xGD / match +1.80 +1.33
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.46 2.16

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Red Bull Salzburg match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

Last 5

Matches
5
xG / match
2.22
xGA / match
1.18
xGD / match
+1.04
Points
13 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 SK Sturm Graz H xG 1.61 xGA 0.49 xGD +1.12
  2. Fri 11/09 SV Ried A xG 1.56 xGA 0.82 xGD +0.74
  3. Wed 02/09 SK Rapid Wien H Best underlying xG 2.75 xGA 1.02 xGD +1.73
  4. Sun 30/08 Austria Wien H xG 1.71 xGA 0.76 xGD +0.95
  5. Sun 16/08 WSG Tirol A Weakest underlying xG 3.47 xGA 2.81 xGD +0.66

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.47. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Red Bull Salzburg in Austrian Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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