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Fixtures

1. FSV Mainz 05 fixtures 2026/2027

1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga 2026/2027 →

What 1. FSV Mainz 05 have left to play in Bundesliga 2026/2027, soonest first. Open a match for the projection behind it and the prices standing against it.

Fixture outlook

30 matches ahead in Bundesliga

Run difficulty 2.8 of 5 Balanced
Projected xG / match 1.78
Projected xGA / match 1.56
Projected xPts 45.3 / 90

Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.

What the fixtures say

The run of 30 matches ahead of 1. FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga rates 2.8 of 5 for difficulty, which the scale calls Balanced. 10 of them rate easier than balanced, and 4 of them rate harder than balanced. The model expects 1.78 projected xG a match from them and 45.3 of the 90 points the priced fixtures could return. The hardest of them is FC Bayern München away, banded 4 of 5 — Difficult, against an attack rated 85/99 and a defence rated 78/99. Worth reading those figures against: the fit behind at least one of these fixtures is drawn from a thin sample of played matches.

The run at a glance

One cell per fixture in the run, soonest first, with its difficulty band under the opponent: 1 is the most favourable and 5 the least. An empty slot is a fixture with no band, and the cell says why.

The first 10 of the 30 matches in this run. The list below carries every one of them.

Kindest fixture

Hamburger SV home Sat 30/01

2 Favourable Opponent: attack 27/99, defence 36/99

Projected xG 2.18 – 1.10 1. FSV Mainz 05 win 62%

Toughest fixture

FC Bayern München away Sat 13/03

4 Difficult Opponent: attack 85/99, defence 78/99

Projected xG 1.26 – 2.32 1. FSV Mainz 05 win 17%

  • Open the match page for Bayer 04 Leverkusen

    Sat 10/10 Home Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 73/99, defence 74/99
    Projected xG 1.65 – 1.64 Projected xPts 1.37
  • Open the match page for FC Schalke 04

    Sat 17/10 Away FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 35/99, defence 32/99
    Projected xG 1.78 – 1.50 Projected xPts 1.55
  • Open the match page for SV Werder Bremen

    Sat 24/10 Home SV Werder Bremen Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 32/99, defence 65/99
    Projected xG 1.79 – 1.16 Projected xPts 1.80
  • Open the match page for SV 07 Elversberg

    Fri 30/10 Away SV 07 Elversberg Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 39/99, defence 31/99
    Projected xG 1.80 – 1.57 Projected xPts 1.52
  • Open the match page for FC Bayern München

    Sat 07/11 Home FC Bayern München Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 85/99, defence 78/99
    Projected xG 1.58 – 1.84 Projected xPts 1.20
  • Open the match page for FC Augsburg

    Sun 22/11 Away FC Augsburg Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 49/99, defence 19/99
    Projected xG 1.96 – 1.70 Projected xPts 1.54
  • Open the match page for 1. FC Union Berlin

    Sat 28/11 Home 1. FC Union Berlin Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 32/99, defence 37/99
    Projected xG 2.16 – 1.16 Projected xPts 2.03
  • Open the match page for RB Leipzig

    Sat 05/12 Away RB Leipzig Bundesliga

    4 Difficult Opponent: attack 72/99, defence 60/99
    Projected xG 1.48 – 2.04 Projected xPts 1.01
  • Open the match page for SC Freiburg

    Sat 12/12 Home SC Freiburg Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 50/99, defence 63/99
    Projected xG 1.82 – 1.36 Projected xPts 1.68
  • Open the match page for 1. FC Köln

    Sat 19/12 Home 1. FC Köln Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 56/99, defence 50/99
    Projected xG 2.00 – 1.43 Projected xPts 1.75
  • Open the match page for Borussia Dortmund

    Sat 09/01 Away Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga

    4 Difficult Opponent: attack 51/99, defence 79/99
    Projected xG 1.25 – 1.73 Projected xPts 1.02
  • Open the match page for TSG Hoffenheim

    Wed 13/01 Home TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 61/99, defence 54/99
    Projected xG 1.94 – 1.49 Projected xPts 1.67
  • Open the match page for VfB Stuttgart

    Sat 16/01 Away VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 67/99, defence 44/99
    Projected xG 1.65 – 1.97 Projected xPts 1.17
  • Open the match page for SC Paderborn 07

    Sat 23/01 Away SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 31/99, defence 48/99
    Projected xG 1.61 – 1.45 Projected xPts 1.47
  • Open the match page for Hamburger SV

    Sat 30/01 Home Hamburger SV Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 27/99, defence 36/99
    Projected xG 2.18 – 1.10 Projected xPts 2.08
  • Open the match page for Eintracht Frankfurt

    Sat 06/02 Away Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 35/99, defence 41/99
    Projected xG 1.68 – 1.51 Projected xPts 1.48
  • Open the match page for Borussia M'gladbach

    Sat 13/02 Home Borussia M'gladbach Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 36/99, defence 31/99
    Projected xG 2.25 – 1.21 Projected xPts 2.04
  • Open the match page for Bayer 04 Leverkusen

    Sat 20/02 Away Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bundesliga

    4 Difficult Opponent: attack 73/99, defence 74/99
    Projected xG 1.31 – 2.05 Projected xPts 0.89
  • Open the match page for FC Schalke 04

    Sat 27/02 Home FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 35/99, defence 32/99
    Projected xG 2.24 – 1.20 Projected xPts 2.05
  • Open the match page for SV Werder Bremen

    Wed 03/03 Away SV Werder Bremen Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 32/99, defence 65/99
    Projected xG 1.42 – 1.46 Projected xPts 1.33
  • Open the match page for SV 07 Elversberg

    Sat 06/03 Home SV 07 Elversberg Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 39/99, defence 31/99
    Projected xG 2.26 – 1.25 Projected xPts 2.03
  • Open the match page for FC Bayern München

    Sat 13/03 Away FC Bayern München Bundesliga

    4 Difficult Opponent: attack 85/99, defence 78/99
    Projected xG 1.26 – 2.32 Projected xPts 0.73
  • Open the match page for FC Augsburg

    Sat 20/03 Home FC Augsburg Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 49/99, defence 19/99
    Projected xG 2.46 – 1.35 Projected xPts 2.07
  • Open the match page for 1. FC Union Berlin

    Sat 03/04 Away 1. FC Union Berlin Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 32/99, defence 37/99
    Projected xG 1.72 – 1.46 Projected xPts 1.54
  • Open the match page for RB Leipzig

    Sat 10/04 Home RB Leipzig Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 72/99, defence 60/99
    Projected xG 1.85 – 1.62 Projected xPts 1.52
  • Open the match page for SC Freiburg

    Sat 17/04 Away SC Freiburg Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 50/99, defence 63/99
    Projected xG 1.45 – 1.71 Projected xPts 1.18
  • Open the match page for 1. FC Köln

    Sat 24/04 Away 1. FC Köln Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 56/99, defence 50/99
    Projected xG 1.59 – 1.80 Projected xPts 1.23
  • Open the match page for Borussia Dortmund

    Sat 08/05 Home Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 51/99, defence 79/99
    Projected xG 1.57 – 1.38 Projected xPts 1.49
  • Open the match page for TSG Hoffenheim

    Sat 15/05 Away TSG Hoffenheim Bundesliga

    3 Balanced Opponent: attack 61/99, defence 54/99
    Projected xG 1.55 – 1.88 Projected xPts 1.15
  • Open the match page for VfB Stuttgart

    Sat 22/05 Home VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga

    2 Favourable Opponent: attack 67/99, defence 44/99
    Projected xG 2.07 – 1.56 Projected xPts 1.70

The band is how hard the model rates each match, from 1 (easiest) to 5 (hardest). Opponent attack and defence use the same 1–99 scale as Team Strength, where 50 is the average side in Bundesliga.

Fixture difficulty in Bundesliga

Reads each matchup for 1. FSV Mainz 05: the band is cut from the model's chances of 1. FSV Mainz 05 winning and losing the match, so 1. FSV Mainz 05's own strength and home advantage are in it.

2.8 1. FSV Mainz 05's run 3.0 the competition's average

Every club's remaining calendar is a different length, so there is nothing of equal length to place the whole of this one against.

Upcoming opponent strength

tied number 5 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga

+0.13 xG vs league average

Over 5 upcoming league fixtures

Reads the opponents alone, whoever plays them: each one's fitted xG margin against Bundesliga's average club, with no venue and nothing of 1. FSV Mainz 05's own strength in it.

Opponents behind the figure

Upcoming

+0.13 xG vs league average · over 5 fixtures · tied number 5 hardest of 18

  1. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Home +0.59
  2. FC Schalke 04 Away −0.40
  3. SV Werder Bremen Home −0.09
  4. SV 07 Elversberg Away −0.36
  5. FC Bayern München Home +0.89

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

About these numbers

What is published, what is worked out, and what is the model's

Published by the fixtures feed and stored as it arrives: the kickoff time, the two clubs, the competition, and whether a match is still scheduled.

Worked out here from stored figures: each opponent's attack and defence on a 1–99 scale, where 50 is the average side in Bundesliga and a higher score is a stronger side at both ends; the difficulty band, cut from the model's chances of winning and losing each fixture; and everything the outlook, the strip and the fixture difficulty block add up from the rows — the run's mean band, its averages and totals, the counts they were taken over, the placings and the competition's average.

Worked out here from the model's ratings alone: the Upcoming opponent strength block, the mean of the next 5 opponents' fitted xG margins against the league's average club, whoever plays them, and its rank among the competition's clubs.

The model's output, for matches nobody has played yet: projected xG and xGA, the chances of a win, a draw and a loss, and xPts.

Projected xG is what the model expects a side to create in a match still to come. It is not the xG on the Results page, which measures the chances a side actually had.

xPts is what those three chances are worth in points: 3 times the chance of a win plus the chance of a draw, so 3 is the most a single fixture can be worth.

The difficulty band runs from 1, the most favourable fixture, to 5, the least favourable — so the lower a run's difficulty, the kinder the run.

How the model and every figure here are made →

How the model works →

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