Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
FC Bayern München – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Bayern München
- 61%
- Draw
- 22%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 17%
| FC Bayern München | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.64 | 4.54 | 5.88 |
- Total goals
- 3.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans FC Bayern München
61% FC Bayern München to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 7th
- FC Bayern München attack v 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 5th
- FC Bayern München defence v 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.86 vs +0.47
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.32 – 1.26
- FC Bayern München v 1. FSV Mainz 05
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Bayern München | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches | 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches | +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches | 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.86 | +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- FC Bayern München clean sheet
- 25%
- FC Bayern München 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:1
- 9.5%
- 3:1
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.