xgEdge

Expected goals

FC Bayern München expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Bundesliga · after 4 matches · updated 1 Oct

FC Bayern München's attacking and defensive expected goals in Bundesliga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC Bayern München xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
3.14 xG per match
#1/18
Attack (xG per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Bayern München 3.14
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.48
#3 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.24
#4 SC Freiburg 2.22
#5 RB Leipzig 2.22
#6 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.98
#7 1. FC Köln 1.97
#8 VfB Stuttgart 1.89
#9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.83
=10 Borussia M'gladbach 1.72
=10 FC Augsburg 1.72
#12 Borussia Dortmund 1.66
#13 SV 07 Elversberg 1.38
#14 SV Werder Bremen 1.33
#15 FC Schalke 04 1.32
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 1.13
#17 Hamburger SV 0.91
#18 SC Paderborn 07 0.67
League avg
1.77
Total
12.54 4 matches
Defence
0.57 xGA per match
#1/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 FC Bayern München 0.57
#2 SC Freiburg 0.91
#3 Borussia Dortmund 0.93
#4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.94
#5 RB Leipzig 1.35
#6 SC Paderborn 07 1.43
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.55
#8 SV Werder Bremen 1.55
#9 TSG Hoffenheim 1.70
#10 1. FC Köln 1.98
#11 SV 07 Elversberg 2.02
#12 Hamburger SV 2.04
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 2.05
#14 FC Schalke 04 2.11
#15 FC Augsburg 2.30
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 2.70
#17 VfB Stuttgart 2.75
#18 Borussia M'gladbach 2.92
League avg
1.77
Total
2.28 4 matches
xG difference
+2.57 xGD per match
#1/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Bayern München +2.57
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.54
#3 SC Freiburg +1.31
#4 RB Leipzig +0.86
#5 Borussia Dortmund +0.73
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 +0.69
#7 TSG Hoffenheim +0.13
#8 1. FC Köln -0.01
#9 Eintracht Frankfurt -0.07
#10 SV Werder Bremen -0.22
#11 FC Augsburg -0.58
#12 SV 07 Elversberg -0.64
#13 SC Paderborn 07 -0.77
#14 FC Schalke 04 -0.79
#15 VfB Stuttgart -0.86
#16 Hamburger SV -1.12
#17 Borussia M'gladbach -1.20
#18 1. FC Union Berlin -1.57
League avg
0.00
Total
+10.26 4 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.76 xPts per match
#1/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.76
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.34
#3 SC Freiburg 2.26
#4 Borussia Dortmund 1.95
#5 RB Leipzig 1.85
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.82
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.48
#8 1. FC Köln 1.40
#9 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.36
#10 SV Werder Bremen 1.16
#11 VfB Stuttgart 1.01
#12 FC Augsburg 0.99
#13 SV 07 Elversberg 0.98
#14 FC Schalke 04 0.92
#15 Borussia M'gladbach 0.83
#16 SC Paderborn 07 0.72
#17 Hamburger SV 0.71
#18 1. FC Union Berlin 0.70
League avg
1.40
Total
11.04 vs 10 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 4 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

FC Bayern München's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +2.57 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and elite chance quality. After only 4 matches, treat every figure here as provisional.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.00 xG from penalties
14 12.54 +1.46 Too early to read
Goals conceded vs xGA
2 2.28 -0.28 Too early to read
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
10 11.04 -1.04 Too early to read

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC Bayern München are 1.46 goals above their xG after 4 matches.

Goals
14
xG
12.54
Gap
+1.46
Fri 28/08 Sat 05/09 Sun 13/09 Fri 18/09 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +0.94 -1.00 -1.83 +1.46 +0.94 -1.94 -0.83 +3.29 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC Bayern München: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 28/08 VfB Stuttgart 5 4.06 +0.94 +0.94
Sat 05/09 FC Schalke 04 0 1.94 -1.94 -1.00
Sun 13/09 SV 07 Elversberg 2 2.83 -0.83 -1.83
Fri 18/09 1. FC Union Berlin 7 3.71 +3.29 +1.46

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

FC Bayern München xG trend

Current form +2.30 npxGD per match

All 4 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 4 matches.

npxG · last 4
2.89
npxGA · last 4
0.59
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +3.17 Fri 28/08 +1.89 Sat 05/09 +1.49 Sun 13/09 +2.64 Fri 18/09 +2.30 season avg
FC Bayern München: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 28/08 VfB Stuttgart 4.03 0.86 +3.17 +3.17
Sat 05/09 FC Schalke 04 2.10 0.21 +1.89 +2.53
Sun 13/09 SV 07 Elversberg 2.43 0.94 +1.49 +2.18
Fri 18/09 1. FC Union Berlin 2.98 0.34 +2.64 +2.30

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.89 npxG and 0.59 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 16 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga
−0.24 xG vs league average
Over 4 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.24 xG vs league average · over 4 matches · number 16 hardest of 18

  1. 1. FC Union Berlin Home −0.38
  2. SV 07 Elversberg Away −0.36
  3. FC Schalke 04 Away −0.40
  4. VfB Stuttgart Home +0.17

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC Bayern München shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. FC Bayern München take 21.8 shots a match (league 15.5) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #2 in Bundesliga for volume and #2 for quality. 62% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 26%).

Attack

Shot volume
21.8 shots per match
#2/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 22.5
#2 FC Bayern München 21.8
=3 SC Freiburg 19.0
=3 TSG Hoffenheim 19.0
#5 RB Leipzig 18.8
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 18.3
#7 1. FC Köln 17.3
#8 Borussia M'gladbach 16.5
#9 VfB Stuttgart 15.3
#10 Borussia Dortmund 14.5
#11 FC Augsburg 14.0
=12 Eintracht Frankfurt 13.8
=12 SV Werder Bremen 13.8
=14 1. FC Union Berlin 11.8
=14 FC Schalke 04 11.8
=14 SC Paderborn 07 11.8
#17 SV 07 Elversberg 10.3
#18 Hamburger SV 9.5
League avg
15.5
Total
87 shots from 4 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#2/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SV 07 Elversberg 0.14
#2 FC Bayern München 0.13
#3 RB Leipzig 0.13
#4 FC Augsburg 0.12
#5 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.12
#6 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.12
#7 Borussia Dortmund 0.12
#8 FC Schalke 04 0.11
#9 VfB Stuttgart 0.11
#10 SC Freiburg 0.11
#11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.11
#12 1. FC Köln 0.11
#13 1. FC Union Berlin 0.10
#14 Hamburger SV 0.10
#15 TSG Hoffenheim 0.08
#16 SV Werder Bremen 0.08
#17 Borussia M'gladbach 0.08
#18 SC Paderborn 07 0.06
League avg
0.11
Total
11.54 npxG from 87 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
5.8 shots per match
#1/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 5.8
#2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9.0
#3 SC Freiburg 9.5
#4 Borussia Dortmund 12.0
#5 1. FSV Mainz 05 12.5
#6 RB Leipzig 13.8
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 14.5
#8 SV Werder Bremen 15.0
#9 1. FC Köln 15.8
#10 FC Schalke 04 17.5
#11 VfB Stuttgart 18.0
=12 Hamburger SV 18.5
=12 SC Paderborn 07 18.5
=14 1. FC Union Berlin 18.8
=14 Borussia M'gladbach 18.8
#16 Eintracht Frankfurt 19.0
#17 FC Augsburg 20.8
#18 SV 07 Elversberg 21.8
League avg
15.5
Total
23 shots allowed from 4 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#11/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Borussia Dortmund 0.07
#2 SC Freiburg 0.07
#3 SC Paderborn 07 0.08
#4 SV 07 Elversberg 0.09
#5 SV Werder Bremen 0.09
#6 RB Leipzig 0.09
#7 FC Augsburg 0.10
#8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.10
#9 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.10
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.10
#11 FC Bayern München 0.10
#12 1. FC Köln 0.11
#13 TSG Hoffenheim 0.12
#14 Hamburger SV 0.12
#15 FC Schalke 04 0.12
#16 1. FC Union Berlin 0.13
#17 VfB Stuttgart 0.15
#18 Borussia M'gladbach 0.16
League avg
0.11
Total
2.35 npxGA from 23 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

62% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 54 of 87 shots over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

65% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 15 of 23 shots allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 1.7 of 11.5 npxG over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 26% set pieces

From 0.3 of 2.4 npxG allowed over 4 matches

Early-season figure: after 4 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

FC Bayern München home and away xG

FC Bayern München per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away only 2 matches with xG
Matches 2 2
xG / match 3.89 2.39
xGA / match 0.57 0.58
xGD / match +3.32 +1.81
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.91 2.61

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC Bayern München match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
4
xG / match
3.14
xGA / match
0.57
xGD / match
+2.57
Points
10 of 12
  1. Fri 18/09 1. FC Union Berlin H xG 3.71 P xGA 0.34 xGD +3.37
  2. Sun 13/09 SV 07 Elversberg A xG 2.83 xGA 0.94 xGD +1.89
  3. Sat 05/09 FC Schalke 04 A xG 1.94 xGA 0.21 xGD +1.73
  4. Fri 28/08 VfB Stuttgart H xG 4.06 xGA 0.79 xGD +3.27

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.06. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC Bayern München in Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

Mind if we count your visit?

We use Google Analytics only to see how many people visit and which pages they read. It loads after you allow it — no ads, no tracking across other sites. What we collect