Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
SC Paderborn 07 – 1. FSV Mainz 05
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SC Paderborn 07
- 32%
- Draw
- 28%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 40%
| SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.09 | 3.56 | 2.52 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans 1. FSV Mainz 05
40% 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 10th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 attack v SC Paderborn 07 defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 17th
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 defence v SC Paderborn 07 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs -0.77
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.45 – 1.61
- SC Paderborn 07 v 1. FSV Mainz 05
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SC Paderborn 07 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.67 · 18th from 4 matches | (better) 2.24 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.43 · 6th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 7th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.77 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) +0.69 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.72 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 1.82 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.77 from 4 matches | (better) +0.47 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet
- 21%
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 1:2
- 10.0%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Paderborn 07 sample
- 4 matches
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SC Paderborn 07
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · 1. FSV Mainz 05
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Warnings
- SC Paderborn 07 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.