Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – FC Bayern München
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 39%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Bayern München
- 34%
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Draw | FC Bayern München | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.55 | 3.73 | 2.94 |
- Total goals
- 3.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Bayer 04 Leverkusen
39% Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 2nd
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen attack v FC Bayern München defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 1st
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen defence v FC Bayern München attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.86 vs +1.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.60
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen v FC Bayern München
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.48 · 2nd from 4 matches | (better) 3.14 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 0.94 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) 0.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +1.54 · 2nd from 4 matches | (better) +2.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 2.34 · 2nd from 4 matches | (better) 2.76 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.86 | (better) +1.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen clean sheet
- 18%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.9%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen sample
- 20 matches
- FC Bayern München sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Bayern München
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.