RB Leipzig 1:2 1. FSV Mainz 05: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 31/01/2026 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 1.43 xG · 15 shots

1. FSV Mainz 05 Away 2.33 xG · 11 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

40' Conrad Harder RB Leipzig · 0.14 xG chance 1–0
45' Nadiem Amiri (pen.) 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
49' Silas 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 0.68 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig 1. FSV Mainz 05

Shots: 15; 11
On target: 4; 4
Inside the box: 14; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.22
Open play xG: 1.29; 1.52
Set-piece xG: 0.14; 0.05
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.53 for 1. FSV Mainz 05.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 3.82 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
1. FSV Mainz 05
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

1.67 xG created 1.93 xGA

L 0.55 created, 1.42 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 1.77 created, 2.72 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
W 2.48 created, 0.17 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 2.45 created, 4.56 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 1.69 created, 1.26 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.09 created, 1.45 conceded against FC St. Pauli

1. FSV Mainz 05

1.61 xG created 2.08 xGA

D 0.60 created, 4.50 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 1.12 created, 0.30 conceded against FC St. Pauli
D 1.01 created, 3.35 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.39 created, 1.55 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 1.52 created, 2.08 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 4.04 created, 0.67 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

RB Leipzig: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

1. FSV Mainz 05 0:1 RB Leipzig 13/09/2025 xG 0.90 – 1.79

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.