RB Leipzig 2:1 Hamburger SV: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 18/10/2025 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

RB Leipzig Home 1.06 xG · 10 shots

Hamburger SV Away 1.53 xG · 15 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Goals

45' Christoph Baumgartner RB Leipzig · 0.49 xG chance 1–0
48' Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamburger SV · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
50' Christoph Baumgartner RB Leipzig · 0.20 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

RB Leipzig Hamburger SV

Shots: 10; 15
On target: 4; 3
Inside the box: 5; 10
xG per shot: 0.13; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.71
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.79
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.25 for RB Leipzig and 1.53 for Hamburger SV.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 2.76 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

RB Leipzig
Hamburger SV
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

RB Leipzig

1.89 xG created 1.53 xGA

L 0.54 created, 1.63 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.23 created, 1.02 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
W 1.79 created, 0.90 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
W 3.28 created, 1.70 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 2.41 created, 3.05 conceded against VfL Wolfsburg
D 1.09 created, 0.89 conceded against Borussia Dortmund

Hamburger SV

1.11 xG created 1.67 xGA

D 0.41 created, 1.04 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.35 created, 1.44 conceded against FC St. Pauli
L 0.58 created, 2.54 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 2.35 created, 2.98 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 1.08 created, 1.37 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.91 created, 0.67 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.