Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
VfB Stuttgart – Hamburger SV
Model updated 4 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- VfB Stuttgart
- 61%
- Draw
- 22%
- Hamburger SV
- 17%
| VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.64 | 4.47 | 6.06 |
- Total goals
- 3.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans VfB Stuttgart
61% VfB Stuttgart to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 14th
- VfB Stuttgart attack v Hamburger SV defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 18th
- VfB Stuttgart defence v Hamburger SV attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.36 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.25 – 1.20
- VfB Stuttgart v Hamburger SV
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.89 · 8th from 4 matches | 0.91 · 17th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.75 · 17th from 4 matches | (better) 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.86 · 15th from 4 matches | -1.12 · 16th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.01 · 11th from 4 matches | 0.71 · 17th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.36 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet
- 27%
- VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals
- 68%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:1
- 10.0%
- 3:1
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- VfB Stuttgart sample
- 20 matches
- Hamburger SV sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · VfB Stuttgart
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Hamburger SV
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.