VfL Wolfsburg 1:2 Borussia Dortmund: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 07/02/2026 at 15:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg Home 1.45 xG · 12 shots

Borussia Dortmund Away 1.27 xG · 21 shots

12 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

38' Julian Brandt Borussia Dortmund · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
52' Konstantinos Koulierakis VfL Wolfsburg · 0.37 xG chance 1–1
87' Serhou Guirassy Borussia Dortmund · 0.09 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

VfL Wolfsburg Borussia Dortmund

Shots: 12; 21
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 6; 14
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.06; 0.90
Set-piece xG: 0.37; 0.37
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.45 for VfL Wolfsburg.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 2.70 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

VfL Wolfsburg
Borussia Dortmund
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.29 xG created 2.33 xGA

L 1.66 created, 3.53 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 1.36 created, 3.30 conceded against FC Bayern München
W 1.88 created, 0.89 conceded against FC St. Pauli
D 0.92 created, 0.99 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
L 0.67 created, 4.04 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05
L 1.27 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Köln

Borussia Dortmund

2.44 xG created 1.07 xGA

W 1.43 created, 0.28 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
D 2.38 created, 1.58 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.42 created, 0.52 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
W 3.20 created, 0.54 conceded against FC St. Pauli
W 1.89 created, 1.24 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.32 created, 2.26 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

VfL Wolfsburg: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Borussia Dortmund 1:0 VfL Wolfsburg 21/09/2025 xG 1.10 – 0.80

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.