VfL Wolfsburg 2:1 FC St. Pauli: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Wednesday, 14/01/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg Home 1.88 xG · 13 shots

FC St. Pauli Away 0.89 xG · 9 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

25' Christian Eriksen (pen.) VfL Wolfsburg · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
40' Eric Smith FC St. Pauli · 0.06 xG chance 1–1
88' Dženan Pejčinović VfL Wolfsburg · 0.24 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

VfL Wolfsburg FC St. Pauli

Shots: 13; 9
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 9; 4
xG per shot: 0.15; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.94; 1.19
Set-piece xG: 0.15; 0.06
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.09 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.27 for FC St. Pauli.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

22 shots · 3.16 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

VfL Wolfsburg
FC St. Pauli
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

VfL Wolfsburg

1.59 xG created 2.04 xGA

L 2.13 created, 1.10 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
D 1.86 created, 1.59 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 0.81 created, 1.92 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 1.72 created, 0.80 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 1.66 created, 3.53 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 1.36 created, 3.30 conceded against FC Bayern München

FC St. Pauli

0.52 xG created 1.52 xGA

L 0.53 created, 1.02 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.72 created, 0.55 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
L 0.64 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Bayern München
D 0.14 created, 1.66 conceded against 1. FC Köln
W 0.80 created, 2.44 conceded against 1. FC Heidenheim
D 0.30 created, 1.12 conceded against 1. FSV Mainz 05

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.