FC Bayern München 3:1 FC St. Pauli: xG & match report · Bundesliga

Saturday, 29/11/2025 at 15:30

Full time

Match report · Bundesliga

FC Bayern München Home 2.30 xG · 19 shots

FC St. Pauli Away 0.64 xG · 10 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

6' Andreas Hountondji FC St. Pauli · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
44' Raphaël Guerreiro FC Bayern München · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
90' Luis Díaz FC Bayern München · 0.36 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.
90' Nicolas Jackson FC Bayern München · 0.60 xG chance – Scored in the same minute as another goal, so the score after it is not shown.

The shots behind it

FC Bayern München FC St. Pauli

Shots: 19; 10
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 14; 5
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.05
Open play xG: 2.09; 0.36
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.30 for FC Bayern München and 0.52 for FC St. Pauli.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.84 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

FC Bayern München
FC St. Pauli
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Bayern München

2.44 xG created 0.73 xGA

W 1.71 created, 0.39 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
W 2.48 created, 1.58 conceded against Borussia Dortmund
W 3.97 created, 0.79 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
W 2.03 created, 0.23 conceded against Bayer 04 Leverkusen
D 1.41 created, 0.80 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin
W 3.03 created, 0.57 conceded against SC Freiburg

FC St. Pauli

0.71 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 0.76 created, 1.86 conceded against SV Werder Bremen
L 0.99 created, 2.34 conceded against TSG Hoffenheim
L 0.39 created, 2.26 conceded against Eintracht Frankfurt
L 0.88 created, 2.32 conceded against Borussia M'gladbach
L 0.53 created, 1.02 conceded against SC Freiburg
L 0.72 created, 0.55 conceded against 1. FC Union Berlin

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.