Bolton Wanderers – Bristol City prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 11h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Bolton Wanderers Home 18th in Championship

1.39

Bristol City Away 14th in Championship

1.17 Projected xG

Bolton Wanderers: 40%; Mkt 32% Market 32%; Fair 2.50 Fair odds 2.50
Draw: 31%; Mkt 28% Market 28%; Fair 3.22 Fair odds 3.22
Bristol City: 29%; Mkt 39% Market 39%; Fair 3.46 Fair odds 3.46

2 qualified edges: Bolton Wanderers to win, Bristol City not to score

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · partial

Bolton Wanderers 12/20
Bristol City 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 03:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Bolton Wanderers to win Match result

Edge +16.1%

Model 40.1%

Market 32.4%

Fair odds 2.50 Bookmaker odds 2.90

Model skill: +7.19%
Bristol City not to score Goals by team

Edge +12.5%

Model 28.1%

Market 23.4%

Fair odds 3.55 Bookmaker odds 4.00

Model skill: +2.56%
Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +4.2%

Model 41.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.40 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +3.1%

Model 51.5%

Market 47.4%

Fair odds 1.94 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.89%

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Match result

Bolton Wanderers to win Match result

Edge +16.1%

Model 40.1%

Market 32.4%

Fair odds 2.50 Bookmaker odds 2.90

Model skill: +7.19%
Draw Match result

Edge +2.3%

Model 31.0%

Market 28.5%

Fair odds 3.22 Bookmaker odds 3.30

Model skill: -1.04%
Bristol City to win Match result

Edge -30.6%

Model 28.9%

Market 39.1%

Fair odds 3.46 Bookmaker odds 2.40

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Bolton Wanderers to win

Model: 40.1%
Market, margin removed: 32.4%

Probability gap: +7.7 pp
Edge: +16.1%
Fair odds: 2.50
Market odds: 2.90 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.62
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Draw

Model: 31.0%
Market, margin removed: 28.5%

Probability gap: +2.5 pp
Edge: +2.3%
Fair odds: 3.22
Market odds: 3.30 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.39
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Bristol City to win

Model: 28.9%
Market, margin removed: 39.1%

Probability gap: −10.2 pp
Edge: −30.6%
Fair odds: 3.46
Market odds: 2.40 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.63
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +3.1%

Model 51.5%

Market 47.4%

Fair odds 1.94 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -3.9%

Model 76.9%

Market 76.2%

Fair odds 1.30 Bookmaker odds 1.25

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -7.6%

Model 23.1%

Market 23.8%

Fair odds 4.33 Bookmaker odds 4.00

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -12.8%

Model 48.5%

Market 52.6%

Fair odds 2.06 Bookmaker odds 1.80

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -3.5%

Model 57.9%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.73 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -11.5%

Model 42.1%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 2.37 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Bristol City not to score Goals by team

Edge +12.5%

Model 28.1%

Market 23.4%

Fair odds 3.55 Bookmaker odds 4.00

Model skill: +2.56%
Bristol City at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +11.3%

Model 66.8%

Market 55.7%

Fair odds 1.50 Bookmaker odds 1.67

Model skill: +2.61% Kept answer: Bristol City not to score +12.5%
Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +4.2%

Model 41.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.40 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Bolton Wanderers to score Goals by team

Edge +1.4%

Model 78.0%

Market 72.3%

Fair odds 1.28 Bookmaker odds 1.30

Model skill: +3.77%
Bristol City to score Goals by team

Edge -12.2%

Model 71.9%

Market 76.6%

Fair odds 1.39 Bookmaker odds 1.22

Model skill: +2.56%
Bolton Wanderers at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -12.5%

Model 58.3%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.71 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +3.62%
Bolton Wanderers not to score Goals by team

Edge -25.1%

Model 22.0%

Market 27.7%

Fair odds 4.54 Bookmaker odds 3.40

Model skill: +3.77%
Bristol City 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -30.3%

Model 33.2%

Market 44.3%

Fair odds 3.01 Bookmaker odds 2.10

Model skill: +2.61%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bolton Wanderers xG 1.41 xGA 1.92

W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough

Bristol City xG 1.27 xGA 0.81

L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.89 created, 0.15 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.50 created, 1.18 conceded against Sheffield United
D 0.78 created, 0.67 conceded against Stoke City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.57
Over 2.5 goals: 48%
Both teams to score: 58%
Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals: 42%
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet: 28%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 15.9%
2:1: 10.3%
1:2: 8.4%

Why the model favours Bolton Wanderers

Bolton Wanderers is the better side at both ends of the pitch; recent form does not back it.

Attack: Favours Bolton Wanderers; 9th vs 12th; Bolton Wanderers attack v Bristol City defence
Defence: Favours Bolton Wanderers; 18th vs 20th; Bolton Wanderers defence v Bristol City attack
Recent xG form: Favours Bristol City; -0.50 vs +0.46; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Bolton Wanderers and Bristol City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bolton Wanderers	Bristol City
xG / match	(better) 1.36 · 11th	1.27 · 17th
xGA / match	1.90 · 24th	(better) 1.29 · 7th
xGD / match	-0.55 · 19th	(better) -0.02 · 11th
xPts / match	1.06 · 19th	(better) 1.44 · 11th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.51	(better) +0.46

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Bolton Wanderers and Bristol City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bolton Wanderers	Bristol City
xG / match	(better) 1.36 · 11th	1.27 · 17th
npxG / match	1.17	(better) 1.18
Shots / match	(better) 13.7 · 11th	13.5 · 12th
npxG / shot	0.09 · 18th	(better) 0.09 · 17th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Bolton Wanderers and Bristol City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bolton Wanderers	Bristol City
xGA / match	1.90 · 24th	(better) 1.29 · 7th
Shots faced / match	14.3 · 13th	(better) 11.9 · 7th
npxGA / shot	0.13 · 24th	(better) 0.09 · 13th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Bolton Wanderers and Bristol City compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Bolton Wanderers	Bristol City
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.41	1.27
Last 6 xGA / match	1.92	(better) 0.81
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.51	(better) +0.46

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Bolton Wanderers to win

40.1% 2.50 —

Draw

31.0% 3.22 —

Bristol City to win

28.9% 3.46 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

76.9% 1.30 —

Under 1.5 goals

23.1% 4.33 —

Over 2.5 goals

48.5% 2.06 —

Under 2.5 goals

51.5% 1.94 —

Both teams to score

57.9% 1.73 —

Both teams not to score

42.1% 2.37 —

Team goals — Bolton Wanderers

Bolton Wanderers to score

78.0% 1.28 —

Bolton Wanderers not to score

22.0% 4.54 —

Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals

41.7% 2.40 —

Bolton Wanderers at most 1 goal

58.3% 1.71 —

Team goals — Bristol City

Bristol City to score

71.9% 1.39 —

Bristol City not to score

28.1% 3.55 —

Bristol City 2+ goals

33.2% 3.01 —

Bristol City at most 1 goal

66.8% 1.50 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bolton Wanderers xG 1.41 xGA 1.92

W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough

Bristol City xG 1.27 xGA 0.81

L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.89 created, 0.15 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 0.50 created, 1.18 conceded against Sheffield United
D 0.78 created, 0.67 conceded against Stoke City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours Bolton Wanderers

Team comparison

Bolton Wanderers attack → Bristol City defence

Bristol City attack → Bolton Wanderers defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Bolton Wanderers

Team goals — Bristol City

What the model doesn't know