Wednesday, 25/11/2026 at 20:45
26d 18h to kick-offBolton Wanderers – West Bromwich Albion
- Bolton Wanderers
- 37%
- Fair 2.67 Fair odds 2.67
- Draw
- 31%
- Fair 3.24 Fair odds 3.24
- West Bromwich Albion
- 32%
- Fair 3.16 Fair odds 3.16
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Bolton Wanderers 12/20
- West Bromwich Albion 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 00:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 1.22 created, 1.87 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.91 created, 4.17 conceded against Middlesbrough
- D 1.22 created, 0.62 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.29 created, 1.95 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 1.05 created, 2.55 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 0.94 created, 0.38 conceded against Wrexham
- W 3.68 created, 0.82 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- D 2.08 created, 1.79 conceded against Preston North End
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals
- 41%
- Bolton Wanderers clean sheet
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.0%
Why the model leans Bolton Wanderers, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Bolton Wanderers: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Bolton Wanderers.
- Attack
- Favours Bolton Wanderers
- 9th vs 10th
- Bolton Wanderers attack v West Bromwich Albion defence
- Defence
- Favours West Bromwich Albion
- 18th vs 14th
- Bolton Wanderers defence v West Bromwich Albion attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours West Bromwich Albion
- -0.50 vs +0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bolton Wanderers | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.36 · 11th | 1.35 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.90 · 24th | (better) 1.47 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.55 · 19th | (better) -0.12 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 19th | (better) 1.27 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.51 | (better) +0.19 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 12 matches
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bolton Wanderers
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.