Wednesday, 04/11/2026 at 21:00
5d 10h to kick-offBristol City – Wolverhampton
- Bristol City
- 25%
- Fair 4.05 Fair odds 4.05
- Draw
- 33%
- Fair 3.07 Fair odds 3.07
- Wolverhampton
- 43%
- Fair 2.34 Fair odds 2.34
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Bristol City 20/20
- Wolverhampton 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
- D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.89 created, 0.15 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 0.50 created, 1.18 conceded against Sheffield United
- D 0.78 created, 0.67 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.84 created, 0.13 conceded against Watford
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- Wolverhampton 2+ goals
- 39%
- Wolverhampton clean sheet
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 0:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
Why the model favours Wolverhampton
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Wolverhampton.
- Attack
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 5th vs 12th
- Wolverhampton attack v Bristol City defence
- Defence
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 1st vs 20th
- Wolverhampton defence v Bristol City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Wolverhampton
- +0.82 vs +0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bristol City | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.27 · 17th | (better) 1.72 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.29 · 7th | (better) 0.92 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.02 · 11th | (better) +0.81 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.44 · 11th | (better) 1.97 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.46 | (better) +0.82 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Wolverhampton sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Bristol City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wolverhampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.