Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
25d 10h to kick-offBristol City – Wrexham
- Bristol City
- 35%
- Fair 2.82 Fair odds 2.82
- Draw
- 34%
- Fair 2.95 Fair odds 2.95
- Wrexham
- 31%
- Fair 3.26 Fair odds 3.26
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Bristol City 20/20
- Wrexham 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.53 created, 0.53 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.47 created, 0.57 conceded against Watford
- D 1.47 created, 1.78 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.89 created, 0.15 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- L 0.50 created, 1.18 conceded against Sheffield United
- D 0.78 created, 0.67 conceded against Stoke City
- L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
- D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
- L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- Bristol City 2+ goals
- 32%
- Bristol City clean sheet
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.3%
- 1:0
- 10.4%
Why the model leans Bristol City, but not by much
Bristol City's defence and recent form carry the lean; its attack does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Wrexham
- 20th vs 8th
- Bristol City attack v Wrexham defence
- Defence
- Favours Bristol City
- 12th vs 18th
- Bristol City defence v Wrexham attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Bristol City
- +0.46 vs -0.41
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bristol City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.27 · 17th | 1.17 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.29 · 7th | (better) 1.21 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.02 · 11th | -0.04 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.44 · 11th | 1.41 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.46 | -0.41 |
Head to head
Bristol City 0 Draws 1 Wrexham 1
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bristol City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wrexham
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.