Wednesday, 25/11/2026 at 20:45
26d 12h to kick-offBurnley – Birmingham City
- Burnley
- 32%
- Fair 3.10 Fair odds 3.10
- Draw
- 31%
- Fair 3.24 Fair odds 3.24
- Birmingham City
- 37%
- Fair 2.70 Fair odds 2.70
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Burnley 12/20
- Birmingham City 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
- W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
- D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County
- D 1.23 created, 2.14 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.55 created, 1.05 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 2.24 created, 0.49 conceded against Preston North End
- W 1.30 created, 1.15 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.89 created, 2.36 conceded against Cardiff City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.64
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- Birmingham City 2+ goals
- 41%
- Birmingham City clean sheet
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.7%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
Why the model leans Birmingham City, but not by much
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Birmingham City.
- Attack
- Favours Birmingham City
- 8th vs 16th
- Birmingham City attack v Burnley defence
- Defence
- Favours Birmingham City
- 7th vs 11th
- Birmingham City defence v Burnley attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Birmingham City
- +0.51 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Burnley | Birmingham City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 13th | (better) 1.69 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.65 · 20th | (better) 1.33 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -0.33 · 18th | (better) +0.37 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.11 · 18th | (better) 1.64 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +0.51 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Burnley sample
- 12 matches
- Birmingham City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Burnley
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Birmingham City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.