Sunday, 22/11/2026 at 13:00
22d 4h to kick-offBurnley – Blackburn Rovers
- Burnley
- 46%
- Fair 2.16 Fair odds 2.16
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.39 Fair odds 3.39
- Blackburn Rovers
- 24%
- Fair 4.14 Fair odds 4.14
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Burnley 12/20
- Blackburn Rovers 20/20
- Model updated 31 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
- D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
- W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
- D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
- L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.23 created, 1.67 conceded against Millwall
- D 0.59 created, 1.60 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 2.42 created, 1.05 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 0.15 created, 1.89 conceded against Bristol City
- L 0.82 created, 3.68 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.53 created, 1.69 conceded against Wrexham
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- Burnley 2+ goals
- 48%
- Burnley clean sheet
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.0%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 8.4%
Why the model favours Burnley
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Burnley.
- Attack
- Favours Burnley
- 11th vs 20th
- Burnley attack v Blackburn Rovers defence
- Defence
- Favours Burnley
- 17th vs 21st
- Burnley defence v Blackburn Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Burnley
- -0.39 vs -0.81
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Burnley | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.32 · 13th | 1.03 · 21st |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.65 · 20th | 1.72 · 22nd |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.33 · 18th | -0.69 · 21st |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.11 · 18th | 0.92 · 23rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.39 | -0.81 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Burnley sample
- 12 matches
- Blackburn Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Burnley
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Blackburn Rovers
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.