Burnley – Portsmouth prediction, 31 October 2026 · Championship

Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00 Sat 31 October, 16:00

1d 6h to kick-off

Match preview · Championship

Burnley Home 22nd in Championship

1.19

Portsmouth Away 11th in Championship

1.21 Projected xG

Burnley: 33%; Mkt 48% Market 48%; Fair 3.00 Fair odds 3.00
Draw: 32%; Mkt 27% Market 27%; Fair 3.08 Fair odds 3.08
Portsmouth: 34%; Mkt 25% Market 25%; Fair 2.93 Fair odds 2.93

2 qualified edges: Portsmouth to win, Burnley not to score

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · partial

Burnley 12/20
Portsmouth 20/20

Model updated 30 October, 06:30
Top odds updated 29 October, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

Portsmouth to win Match result

Edge +28.2%

Model 34.2%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 2.93 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +7.20%
Burnley not to score Goals by team

Edge +19.0%

Model 27.5%

Market 21.7%

Fair odds 3.64 Bookmaker odds 4.33

Model skill: +3.77%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.1%

Model 56.1%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.78 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Portsmouth 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +3.8%

Model 34.6%

Market 31.3%

Fair odds 2.89 Bookmaker odds 3.00

Model skill: +2.61%

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Match result

Portsmouth to win Match result

Edge +28.2%

Model 34.2%

Market 25.0%

Fair odds 2.93 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: +7.20%
Draw Match result

Edge +13.5%

Model 32.4%

Market 26.8%

Fair odds 3.08 Bookmaker odds 3.50

Model skill: -1.04%
Burnley to win Match result

Edge -34.9%

Model 33.4%

Market 48.1%

Fair odds 3.00 Bookmaker odds 1.95

Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Portsmouth to win

Model: 34.2%
Market, margin removed: 25.0%

Probability gap: +9.1 pp
Edge: +28.2%
Fair odds: 2.93
Market odds: 3.75 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.07
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Draw

Model: 32.4%
Market, margin removed: 26.8%

Probability gap: +5.6 pp
Edge: +13.5%
Fair odds: 3.08
Market odds: 3.50 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.24
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Burnley to win

Model: 33.4%
Market, margin removed: 48.1%

Probability gap: −14.8 pp
Edge: −34.9%
Fair odds: 3.00
Market odds: 1.95 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.15
Bookmaker margin: 6.5%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.1%

Model 56.1%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 1.78 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -0.9%

Model 26.4%

Market 25.5%

Fair odds 3.78 Bookmaker odds 3.75

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.4%

Model 73.6%

Market 74.5%

Fair odds 1.36 Bookmaker odds 1.29

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -16.2%

Model 43.9%

Market 50.0%

Fair odds 2.28 Bookmaker odds 1.91

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -5.2%

Model 54.9%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.82 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -9.8%

Model 45.1%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.22 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

Burnley not to score Goals by team

Edge +19.0%

Model 27.5%

Market 21.7%

Fair odds 3.64 Bookmaker odds 4.33

Model skill: +3.77%
Burnley at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +14.0%

Model 66.0%

Market 53.7%

Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.73

Model skill: +3.62% Kept answer: Burnley not to score +19.0%
Portsmouth 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge +3.8%

Model 34.6%

Market 31.3%

Fair odds 2.89 Bookmaker odds 3.00

Model skill: +2.61%
Portsmouth to score Goals by team

Edge +2.2%

Model 73.0%

Market 66.3%

Fair odds 1.37 Bookmaker odds 1.40

Model skill: +2.56%
Portsmouth at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -10.8%

Model 65.4%

Market 68.7%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.36

Model skill: +2.61%
Burnley to score Goals by team

Edge -13.0%

Model 72.5%

Market 78.3%

Fair odds 1.38 Bookmaker odds 1.20

Model skill: +3.77%
Portsmouth not to score Goals by team

Edge -25.8%

Model 27.0%

Market 33.7%

Fair odds 3.71 Bookmaker odds 2.75

Model skill: +2.56%
Burnley 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -32.0%

Model 34.0%

Market 46.3%

Fair odds 2.94 Bookmaker odds 2.00

Model skill: +3.62%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Burnley xG 1.43 xGA 1.81

L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City

Portsmouth xG 1.28 xGA 0.98

D 1.60 created, 0.59 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 1.18 created, 1.28 conceded against Southampton
W 2.22 created, 2.01 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.19 created, 0.29 conceded against Norwich City
D 0.65 created, 1.01 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 0.82 created, 0.67 conceded against Millwall

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 2.40
Over 2.5 goals: 44%
Both teams to score: 55%
Portsmouth 2+ goals: 35%
Portsmouth clean sheet: 27%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 16.7%
0:0: 9.3%
1:2: 9.2%

Why the model leans Portsmouth, but not by much

Portsmouth's defence and recent form carry the lean; its attack does not back it.

Attack: Even; 16th vs 16th; Portsmouth attack v Burnley defence
Defence: Favours Portsmouth; 3rd vs 11th; Portsmouth defence v Burnley attack
Recent xG form: Favours Portsmouth; +0.30 vs -0.39; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Burnley and Portsmouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Burnley	Portsmouth
xG / match	(better) 1.32 · 13th	1.31 · 14th
xGA / match	1.65 · 20th	(better) 1.13 · 4th
xGD / match	-0.33 · 18th	(better) +0.18 · 9th
xPts / match	1.11 · 18th	(better) 1.51 · 9th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.39	(better) +0.30

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Burnley and Portsmouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Burnley	Portsmouth
xG / match	(better) 1.32 · 13th	1.31 · 14th
npxG / match	1.14	(better) 1.16
Shots / match	13.8 · 10th	(better) 14.6 · 7th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.08 · 19th	0.08 · 21st

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Burnley and Portsmouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Burnley	Portsmouth
xGA / match	1.65 · 20th	(better) 1.13 · 4th
Shots faced / match	14.7 · 15th	(better) 10.9 · joint 2nd
npxGA / shot	0.10 · 17th	(better) 0.10 · 15th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Burnley and Portsmouth compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Burnley	Portsmouth
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.43	1.28
Last 6 xGA / match	1.81	(better) 0.98
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.39	(better) +0.30

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Burnley to win

33.4% 3.00 —

Draw

32.4% 3.08 —

Portsmouth to win

34.2% 2.93 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

73.6% 1.36 —

Under 1.5 goals

26.4% 3.78 —

Over 2.5 goals

43.9% 2.28 —

Under 2.5 goals

56.1% 1.78 —

Both teams to score

54.9% 1.82 —

Both teams not to score

45.1% 2.22 —

Team goals — Burnley

Burnley to score

72.5% 1.38 —

Burnley not to score

27.5% 3.64 —

Burnley 2+ goals

34.0% 2.94 —

Burnley at most 1 goal

66.0% 1.52 —

Team goals — Portsmouth

Portsmouth to score

73.0% 1.37 —

Portsmouth not to score

27.0% 3.71 —

Portsmouth 2+ goals

34.6% 2.89 —

Portsmouth at most 1 goal

65.4% 1.53 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Burnley xG 1.43 xGA 1.81

L 1.73 created, 2.63 conceded against Swansea City
D 0.45 created, 1.75 conceded against Derby County
W 1.94 created, 0.64 conceded against Watford
D 1.08 created, 2.13 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.00 created, 1.82 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 2.35 created, 1.90 conceded against Lincoln City

Portsmouth xG 1.28 xGA 0.98

D 1.60 created, 0.59 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
L 1.18 created, 1.28 conceded against Southampton
W 2.22 created, 2.01 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.19 created, 0.29 conceded against Norwich City
D 0.65 created, 1.01 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 0.82 created, 0.67 conceded against Millwall

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model leans Portsmouth, but not by much

Team comparison

Burnley attack → Portsmouth defence

Portsmouth attack → Burnley defence

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Burnley

Team goals — Portsmouth

What the model doesn't know