Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 20:45
25d 9h to kick-offCardiff City – Preston North End
- Cardiff City
- 53%
- Fair 1.88 Fair odds 1.88
- Draw
- 25%
- Fair 3.93 Fair odds 3.93
- Preston North End
- 21%
- Fair 4.69 Fair odds 4.69
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Cardiff City 12/20
- Preston North End 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 0.58 created, 0.66 conceded against Lincoln City
- D 1.50 created, 2.54 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.65 created, 1.09 conceded against Millwall
- L 0.49 created, 2.24 conceded against Birmingham City
- L 0.72 created, 1.86 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.79 created, 2.08 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 3.21
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- Cardiff City 2+ goals
- 61%
- Cardiff City clean sheet
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 11.8%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.6%
Why the model favours Cardiff City
Cardiff City's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Cardiff City
- 4th vs 24th
- Cardiff City attack v Preston North End defence
- Defence
- Favours Preston North End
- 15th vs 12th
- Cardiff City defence v Preston North End attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Cardiff City
- +0.52 vs -0.79
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.92 · 3rd | 1.28 · 16th |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 17th | (better) 1.51 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.35 · 8th | -0.23 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 8th | 1.19 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.52 | -0.79 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 12 matches
- Preston North End sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Preston North End
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.