Wednesday, 04/11/2026 at 20:45
5d 13h to kick-offCardiff City – West Ham United
- Cardiff City
- 32%
- Fair 3.12 Fair odds 3.12
- Draw
- 28%
- Fair 3.58 Fair odds 3.58
- West Ham United
- 40%
- Fair 2.50 Fair odds 2.50
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Cardiff City 12/20
- West Ham United 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City
- W 2.96 created, 0.44 conceded against Wrexham
- D 1.87 created, 2.68 conceded against Millwall
- D 1.44 created, 1.27 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- W 3.20 created, 0.35 conceded against Lincoln City
- W 1.19 created, 1.04 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.52 created, 1.55 conceded against Southampton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 50%
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 21%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
Why the model leans West Ham United, but not by much
West Ham United's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours West Ham United
- 2nd vs 15th
- West Ham United attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- Favours Cardiff City
- 5th vs 4th
- West Ham United defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours West Ham United
- +0.81 vs +0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cardiff City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.92 · 3rd | (better) 2.11 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.57 · 17th | (better) 1.21 · 6th |
| xGD / match | +0.35 · 8th | (better) +0.90 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.58 · 8th | (better) 1.84 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.52 | (better) +0.81 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cardiff City sample
- 12 matches
- West Ham United sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · West Ham United
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.