Tuesday, 03/11/2026 at 20:45
4d 12h to kick-offDerby County – Norwich City
- Derby County
- 32%
- Fair 3.13 Fair odds 3.13
- Draw
- 31%
- Fair 3.21 Fair odds 3.21
- Norwich City
- 37%
- Fair 2.71 Fair odds 2.71
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Derby County 20/20
- Norwich City 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
- L 0.99 created, 0.56 conceded against Stoke City
- D 1.09 created, 2.47 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.69 created, 0.79 conceded against Charlton Athletic
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 40%
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 9.0%
Why the model leans Norwich City, but not by much
Norwich City is the better side at both ends of the pitch; recent form does not back it.
- Attack
- Favours Norwich City
- 10th vs 20th
- Norwich City attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- Favours Norwich City
- 11th vs 19th
- Norwich City defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Derby County
- -0.64 vs -0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Derby County | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 23rd | (better) 1.48 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.72 · 21st | (better) 1.53 · 16th |
| xGD / match | -0.75 · 22nd | (better) -0.05 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 1.02 · 20th | (better) 1.33 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.54 | -0.63 |
Head to head
Derby County 1 Draws 0 Norwich City 1
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Derby County
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Norwich City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.