Saturday, 28/11/2026 at 13:30
29d 5h to kick-offLincoln City – Wolverhampton
- Lincoln City
- 25%
- Fair 4.07 Fair odds 4.07
- Draw
- 32%
- Fair 3.17 Fair odds 3.17
- Wolverhampton
- 44%
- Fair 2.28 Fair odds 2.28
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Lincoln City 12/20
- Wolverhampton 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
- D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall
- W 1.90 created, 2.35 conceded against Burnley
- W 1.95 created, 0.29 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 0.68 created, 0.90 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 2.23 created, 1.62 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 1.82 created, 1.00 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.01 created, 0.65 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.84 created, 0.13 conceded against Watford
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.40
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- Wolverhampton 2+ goals
- 42%
- Wolverhampton clean sheet
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 0:1
- 10.3%
Why the model favours Wolverhampton
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Wolverhampton.
- Attack
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 5th vs 14th
- Wolverhampton attack v Lincoln City defence
- Defence
- Favours Wolverhampton
- 1st vs 17th
- Wolverhampton defence v Lincoln City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Wolverhampton
- +0.82 vs -0.59
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lincoln City | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.30 · 15th | (better) 1.72 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 12th | (better) 0.92 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.15 · 15th | (better) +0.81 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.35 · 13th | (better) 1.97 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.59 | (better) +0.82 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lincoln City sample
- 12 matches
- Wolverhampton sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Lincoln City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wolverhampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.