Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
22d 4h to kick-offLincoln City – Wrexham
- Lincoln City
- 36%
- Fair 2.81 Fair odds 2.81
- Draw
- 33%
- Fair 3.01 Fair odds 3.01
- Wrexham
- 31%
- Fair 3.21 Fair odds 3.21
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Lincoln City 12/20
- Wrexham 20/20
- Model updated 30 October, 09:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- W 0.53 created, 1.53 conceded against Bristol City
- L 2.11 created, 0.92 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.39 created, 0.68 conceded against Sheffield United
- L 0.35 created, 3.20 conceded against West Ham United
- D 0.73 created, 1.84 conceded against Millwall
- W 1.90 created, 2.35 conceded against Burnley
- L 0.44 created, 2.96 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.54 created, 2.08 conceded against Southampton
- D 1.46 created, 0.60 conceded against Derby County
- L 0.38 created, 0.94 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- W 1.86 created, 0.72 conceded against Preston North End
- L 1.69 created, 1.53 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- Lincoln City 2+ goals
- 34%
- Lincoln City clean sheet
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 17.2%
- 0:0
- 10.2%
- 1:0
- 9.6%
Why the model leans Lincoln City, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Lincoln City: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Lincoln City.
- Attack
- Favours Wrexham
- 17th vs 8th
- Lincoln City attack v Wrexham defence
- Defence
- Favours Lincoln City
- 14th vs 18th
- Lincoln City defence v Wrexham attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Wrexham
- -0.59 vs -0.41
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lincoln City | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.30 · 15th | 1.17 · 19th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 12th | (better) 1.21 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.15 · 15th | (better) -0.04 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 1.35 · 13th | (better) 1.41 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.59 | (better) -0.41 |
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lincoln City sample
- 12 matches
- Wrexham sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lincoln City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wrexham
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.