Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
22d 6h to kick-offNorwich City – Cardiff City
- Norwich City
- 40%
- Fair 2.51 Fair odds 2.51
- Draw
- 29%
- Fair 3.42 Fair odds 3.42
- Cardiff City
- 31%
- Fair 3.23 Fair odds 3.23
No prices yet
No bookmaker has priced this match yet, so there is nothing to hold the model's numbers against. How this is decided →
- Norwich City 20/20
- Cardiff City 12/20
- Model updated 30 October, 06:30
- Odds not yet available
Where the model disagrees with the market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Recent form
- L 1.62 created, 2.07 conceded against Middlesbrough
- L 0.69 created, 1.10 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.68 created, 2.36 conceded against Swansea City
- L 1.07 created, 2.34 conceded against Southampton
- L 0.29 created, 1.19 conceded against Portsmouth
- W 1.69 created, 0.79 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
- W 3.67 created, 1.46 conceded against Watford
- D 0.85 created, 2.71 conceded against Middlesbrough
- W 2.36 created, 0.89 conceded against Birmingham City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 46%
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 23%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.9%
Why the model leans Norwich City, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Norwich City: in Championship, home sides score 1.19 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Norwich City.
- Attack
- Favours Norwich City
- 10th vs 15th
- Norwich City attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- Favours Cardiff City
- 11th vs 4th
- Norwich City defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Cardiff City
- -0.64 vs +0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Norwich City | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.48 · 10th | (better) 1.92 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.53 · 16th | 1.57 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 13th | (better) +0.35 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.33 · 14th | (better) 1.58 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.63 | (better) +0.52 |
Got a different price?
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Cardiff City sample
- 12 matches
- Home xG sample · Norwich City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 30/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.